Arimura Mikiharu, Ha Tran Vinh, Okumura Kota, Asada Takumi
Division of Sustainable and Environmental Engineering, Muroran Institute of Technology, 050-8585, 27-1 Mizumoto-cho, Muroran, Hokkaido, Japan.
Faculty of Urban Environmental and Infrastructural Engineering, Hanoi Architectural University, 100-000, km 10 Nguyen Trai, Thanh Xuan district, Hanoi, Vietnam.
Transp Res Interdiscip Perspect. 2020 Sep;7:100212. doi: 10.1016/j.trip.2020.100212. Epub 2020 Sep 8.
At the time of writing, the world is facing the new coronavirus pandemic, which has been declared one of the most dangerous disasters of the 21st century. All nations and communities have applied many countermeasures to control the spread of the epidemic. In terms of countermeasures, lockdowns and reductions of social activities are meant to flatten the curve of infection. Nevertheless, to date, there has been no evaluation of the effectiveness of these methods. Thus, the present study aims to interpret the change in the population density of Sapporo city in the emergency's period declaration using big data obtained from mobile spatial statistics. The results indicate that, in the time of refraining from traveling, the city's residents have been more likely to stay home and less likely to travel to the center area. This has led to a decrease of up to 90% of the population density in crowded areas. The study's outcomes partly explain the statement of reducing 70%-80% of contact between people in line with the purpose of the emergency declaration. Moreover, these findings establish the primary step for further analysis of estimating the efficiency of policy in controlling the epidemic.
在撰写本文时,世界正面临新型冠状病毒大流行,该疫情已被宣布为21世纪最危险的灾难之一。所有国家和社区都采取了许多对策来控制疫情的传播。在对策方面,封锁和减少社会活动旨在 flatten the curve of infection。然而,迄今为止,尚未对这些方法的有效性进行评估。因此,本研究旨在利用从移动空间统计中获得的大数据来解读紧急状态声明期间札幌市人口密度的变化。结果表明,在避免出行期间,该市居民更有可能待在家中,前往市中心地区的可能性较小。这导致拥挤地区的人口密度下降了高达90%。该研究结果部分解释了符合紧急声明目的的将人与人之间的接触减少70%-80%的说法。此外,这些发现为进一步分析评估控制疫情政策的效率奠定了初步基础。