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政府措施和人员流动趋势对英国新冠相关死亡病例的影响。

The impact of government measures and human mobility trend on COVID-19 related deaths in the UK.

作者信息

Hadjidemetriou Georgios M, Sasidharan Manu, Kouyialis Georgia, Parlikad Ajith K

机构信息

Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge, CB2 1PZ, United Kingdom.

Schlumberger Cambridge Research, CB3 0EL, United Kingdom.

出版信息

Transp Res Interdiscip Perspect. 2020 Jul;6:100167. doi: 10.1016/j.trip.2020.100167. Epub 2020 Jul 4.

Abstract

The COVID-19 global pandemic has rapidly expanded, with the UK being one of the countries with the highest number of cases and deaths in proportion to its population. Major clinical and human behavioural measures have been taken by the UK government to control the spread of the pandemic and to support the health system. It remains unclear how exactly human mobility restrictions have affected the virus spread in the UK. This research uses driving, walking and transit real-time data to investigate the impact of government control measures on human mobility reduction, as well as the connection between trends in human-mobility and severe COVID-19 outcomes. Human mobility was observed to gradually decrease as the government was announcing more measures and it stabilized at a scale of around 80% after a lockdown was imposed. The study shows that human-mobility reduction had a significant impact on reducing COVID-19-related deaths, thus providing crucial evidence in support of such government measures.

摘要

新冠疫情在全球迅速蔓延,英国是按人口比例计算病例和死亡人数最多的国家之一。英国政府已采取了主要的临床和人类行为措施来控制疫情传播并支持卫生系统。目前尚不清楚人员流动限制究竟如何影响了英国境内病毒的传播。本研究使用驾车、步行和公共交通实时数据,来调查政府控制措施对人员流动减少的影响,以及人员流动趋势与新冠重症结果之间的关联。随着政府宣布更多措施,人员流动逐渐减少,在实施封锁后稳定在约80%的水平。该研究表明,人员流动的减少对降低新冠相关死亡人数有显著影响,从而为政府此类措施提供了关键证据。

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