客运航空交通对新冠病毒在全球传播的影响。
The influence of passenger air traffic on the spread of COVID-19 in the world.
作者信息
Sokadjo Yves Morel, Atchadé Mintodê Nicodème
机构信息
Université d'Abomey-Calavi/International Chair in Mathematical Physics and Applications (ICMPA: UNESCO-Chair), 072 BP 50 Cotonou, Benin.
National Higher School of Mathematics Genius and Modelization, National University of Sciences, Technologies, Engineering and Mathematics, Abomey, Benin.
出版信息
Transp Res Interdiscip Perspect. 2020 Nov;8:100213. doi: 10.1016/j.trip.2020.100213. Epub 2020 Sep 8.
Countries in the world are suffering from COVID-19 and would like to control it. Thus, some authorities voted for new policies and even stopped passenger air traffic. Those decisions were not uniform, and this study focuses on how passenger air traffic might influence the spread of COVID-19 in the world. We used data sets of cases from the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University and air transport (passengers carried) from the World Bank. Besides, we computed Poisson, QuasiPoisson, Negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson, and zero-inflated negative binomial models with cross-validation to make sure that our findings are robust. Actually, when passenger air traffic increases by one unit, the number of cases increases by one new infection.
世界各国都在遭受新冠疫情的困扰，并希望加以控制。因此，一些当局投票通过了新政策，甚至停止了客运航空交通。这些决定并不统一，本研究聚焦于客运航空交通可能如何影响新冠病毒在全球的传播。我们使用了约翰霍普金斯大学系统科学与工程中心（CSSE）的病例数据集以及世界银行的航空运输（客运量）数据。此外，我们通过交叉验证计算了泊松、拟泊松、负二项式、零膨胀泊松和零膨胀负二项式模型，以确保我们的研究结果具有稳健性。实际上，当客运航空交通量增加一个单位时，病例数会因新增一例感染而增加。
Zotero 插件