Population Council, Zone 5A, India Habitat Centre, New Delhi, India.
International Food Policy Research Institute, New Delhi & Ex-Population Council, New Delhi, India.
PLoS One. 2021 Jun 28;16(6):e0253637. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0253637. eCollection 2021.
The impact of climate change on agriculture and food security has been examined quite thoroughly by researchers globally as well as in India. While existing studies provide evidence on how climate variability affects the food security and nutrition, research examining the extent of effect vulnerability of agriculture to climate change can have on nutrition in India are scarce. This study examined a) the association between the degree of vulnerability in agriculture to climate change and child nutrition at the micro-level b) spatial effect of climate vulnerability on child nutrition, and c) the geographical hotspots of both vulnerability in agriculture to climate change and child malnutrition.
The study used an index on vulnerability of agriculture to climate change and linked it to child malnutrition indicators (stunting, wasting, underweight and anaemia) from the National Family Health Survey 4 (2015-16). Mixed-effect and spatial autoregressive models were fitted to assess the direction and strength of the relationship between vulnerability and child malnutrition at macro and micro level. Spatial analyses examined the within-district and across-district spill-over effects of climate change vulnerability on child malnutrition.
Both mixed-effect and spatial autoregressive models found that the degree of vulnerability was positively associated with malnutrition among children. Children residing in districts with a very high degree of vulnerability were more like to have malnutrition than those residing in districts with very low vulnerability. The analyses found that the odds of a child suffering from stunting increased by 32%, wasting by 42%, underweight by 45%, and anaemia by 63% if the child belonged to a district categorised as very highly vulnerable when compared to those categorised as very low. The spatial analysis also suggested a high level of clustering in the spatial distribution of vulnerability and malnutrition. Hotspots of child malnutrition and degree of vulnerability were mostly found to be clustered around western-central part of India.
Study highlights the consequences that vulnerability of agriculture to climate change can have on child nutrition. Strategies should be developed to mitigate the effect of climate change on areas where there is a clustering of vulnerability and child malnutrition.
气候变化对农业和粮食安全的影响已经引起了全球研究人员以及印度国内研究人员的广泛关注。虽然现有研究提供了有关气候变率如何影响粮食安全和营养的证据，但研究气候变化对农业的脆弱性对印度营养的影响程度的研究却很少。本研究考察了 a）农业对气候变化的脆弱性程度与微观层面儿童营养之间的关联；b）气候脆弱性对儿童营养的空间影响；以及 c）农业对气候变化的脆弱性和儿童营养不良的地理热点。
本研究使用了一个农业对气候变化脆弱性指数，并将其与 2015-16 年国家家庭健康调查 4 期的儿童营养不良指标（发育迟缓、消瘦、体重不足和贫血）相关联。采用混合效应和空间自回归模型来评估脆弱性和儿童营养不良之间在宏观和微观层面的关系方向和强度。空间分析考察了气候变化脆弱性对儿童营养不良的区内和区际溢出效应。
混合效应和空间自回归模型均发现，脆弱性程度与儿童营养不良呈正相关。与生活在脆弱性极低的地区的儿童相比，生活在脆弱性极高的地区的儿童更有可能出现营养不良。分析发现，如果孩子所在的地区被归类为非常高脆弱性，那么孩子患有发育迟缓的几率增加 32%，消瘦的几率增加 42%，体重不足的几率增加 45%，贫血的几率增加 63%。空间分析还表明，脆弱性和营养不良的空间分布存在高度聚类。儿童营养不良和脆弱性程度的热点地区主要集中在印度中西部。
本研究强调了农业对气候变化的脆弱性可能对儿童营养产生的后果。应制定战略来减轻气候变化对脆弱性和儿童营养不良集中地区的影响。
