International Institute for Population Sciences, Deonar, Mumbai, 88, India.
Int J Public Health. 2020 Apr;65(3):281-290. doi: 10.1007/s00038-020-01353-y. Epub 2020 Apr 2.
Indian agriculture is mostly dependent on monsoon. Poor and irregular rainfall may result in crop failure and food shortage among the vulnerable population. This study examined the variations in drought condition and its association with under age 5 child malnutrition across the districts of India.
Using remote sensing and National Family Health Survey (NFHS-4) data, univariate Moran's I and bivariate local indicator of spatial autocorrelation (LISA) maps were generated to assess the spatial autocorrelation and clustering. To empirically check the association, we applied multivariate ordinary least square and spatial autoregressive models.
The study identified highly significant spatial dependence of drought followed by underweight, stunting, and wasting. Bivariate LISA maps showed negative spatial autocorrelation between drought and child malnutrition. Regression results suggest agricultural drought is substantially associated with stunting. An increasing value of drought showed statistical association with the decreasing (β = - 8.251; p value < 0.05) prevalence rate of child stunting across India.
This study provides evidence of child undernutrition attributable to drought condition, which will further improve the knowledge of human vulnerability and adaptability in the climatic context.
印度农业主要依赖季风。降雨不足且不稳定可能导致脆弱人群的作物歉收和粮食短缺。本研究考察了印度各地区干旱情况的变化及其与 5 岁以下儿童营养不良的关联。
利用遥感和国家家庭健康调查（NFHS-4）数据，生成单变量 Moran's I 和双变量空间自相关局部指标（LISA）地图，以评估空间自相关和聚类。为了实证检验关联，我们应用了多元普通最小二乘法和空间自回归模型。
研究发现干旱具有高度显著的空间依赖性，其次是体重不足、发育迟缓、消瘦。双变量 LISA 地图显示干旱与儿童营养不良之间存在负空间自相关。回归结果表明，农业干旱与发育迟缓有实质性关联。干旱值的增加与印度各地儿童发育迟缓的患病率下降呈统计学关联（β=-8.251；p 值<0.05）。
本研究提供了干旱导致儿童营养不足的证据，这将进一步提高在气候背景下对人类脆弱性和适应性的认识。
