巴西在经历了新冠疫情后预期寿命缩短。
Reduction in life expectancy in Brazil after COVID-19.
机构信息
Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
Demography Department, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil.
出版信息
Nat Med. 2021 Sep;27(9):1629-1635. doi: 10.1038/s41591-021-01437-z. Epub 2021 Jun 29.
Brazil has been heavily affected by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this study, we used data on reported total deaths in 2020 and in January-April 2021 to measure and compare the death toll across states. We estimate a decline in 2020 life expectancy at birth (e) of 1.3 years, a mortality level not seen since 2014. The reduction in life expectancy at age 65 (e) in 2020 was 0.9 years, setting Brazil back to 2012 levels. The decline was larger for males, widening by 9.1% the female-male gap in e. Among states, Amazonas lost 60.4% of the improvements in e since 2000. In the first 4 months of 2021, COVID-19 deaths represented 107% of the total 2020 figures. Assuming that death rates would have been equal to 2019 all-cause rates in the absence of COVID-19, COVID-19 deaths in 2021 have already reduced e in 2021 by 1.8 years, which is slightly larger than the reduction estimated for 2020 under similar assumptions.
巴西深受 2019 冠状病毒病（COVID-19）的影响。在本研究中，我们使用了 2020 年和 2021 年 1 月至 4 月报告的总死亡人数数据，以衡量和比较各州的死亡人数。我们估计 2020 年出生时预期寿命（e）下降了 1.3 年，这是自 2014 年以来从未出现过的死亡率水平。2020 年 65 岁时的预期寿命（e）下降了 0.9 年，使巴西倒退到 2012 年的水平。男性的降幅更大，男女 e 的差距扩大了 9.1%。在各州中，亚马逊州自 2000 年以来丧失了 e 增长的 60.4%。在 2021 年的前 4 个月，COVID-19 死亡人数占 2020 年总死亡人数的 107%。假设在没有 COVID-19 的情况下，死亡率与 2019 年所有原因的死亡率相等，那么 2021 年的 COVID-19 死亡人数已经使 2021 年的 e 减少了 1.8 年，这略大于在类似假设下估计的 2020 年的降幅。
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