Santos Cleber Vinicius Brito Dos, Coelho Lara Esteves, Goedert Guilherme Tegoni, Luz Paula Mendes, Werneck Guilherme Loureiro, Villela Daniel Antunes Maciel, Struchiner Cláudio José
Departamento de Epidemiologia, Instituto de Medicina Social, Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
PLoS One. 2025 Mar 27;20(3):e0319941. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0319941. eCollection 2025.
We quantified the national- and state-level burden of COVID-19 in Brazil and its states during 2020 and contrasted it to the burden from other causes of disease and injury.
We used national surveillance data on COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations and deaths between February/2020 to December/2020. We calculated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) based on the COVID-19 consensus model and methods developed by the European Burden of Disease Network, which includes mild to moderate, severe, and critical COVID-19 cases, long covid and deaths due to COVID-19. We used Brazil DALYs estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Collaborative Network to compare the COVID-19 burden to that from other causes of disease and injury.
COVID-19's led to 5,445,785 DALYs, or 2,603 DALYs/100,000, with > 99% of the burden caused by mortality. Males accounted for the largest fraction of DALYs (3,214,905 or 59%) and DALYs per 100,000 population (140,594 or 63%). Most populated states experienced the highest DALYs. However, the DALYs per 100,000 population were higher in the states of Rio de Janeiro (4,504 DALYs/100,000), Amapá (4,106 DALYs/100,000) and Roraima (3,981 DALYs/100,000). Assuming no major changes in disease burden from other causes of disease and injury from 2019 to 2020 in Brazil, COVID-19's burden would rank as the leading cause of disability in 2020.
Compared with studies with similar methodology, our findings showed that Brazil experienced the highest COVID-19 burden (per 100,000 population) in the world. COVID-19 severely impacted Brazil's populational health in 2020, highlighting the lack of effective mitigation efforts.
我们对2020年巴西全国及各州的新冠负担进行了量化，并将其与其他疾病和伤害原因造成的负担进行了对比。
我们使用了2020年2月至2020年12月期间关于新冠病例、住院和死亡的全国监测数据。我们根据新冠共识模型以及欧洲疾病负担网络开发的方法计算伤残调整生命年（DALYs），其中包括轻度至中度、重度和危重新冠病例、新冠长期症状以及新冠死亡病例。我们使用全球疾病负担协作网络对巴西伤残调整生命年的估计值，将新冠负担与其他疾病和伤害原因造成的负担进行比较。
新冠导致了5,445,785个伤残调整生命年，即每10万人中有2,603个伤残调整生命年，其中超过99%的负担是由死亡率造成的。男性占伤残调整生命年的最大比例（3,214,905个或59%）以及每10万人口中的伤残调整生命年数（140,594个或63%）。人口最多的州经历了最高的伤残调整生命年数。然而，里约热内卢州（每10万人中有4,504个伤残调整生命年）、阿马帕州（每10万人中有4,106个伤残调整生命年）和罗赖马州（每10万人中有3,981个伤残调整生命年）的每10万人口伤残调整生命年数更高。假设2019年至2020年巴西其他疾病和伤害原因造成的疾病负担没有重大变化，那么新冠负担将成为2020年残疾的主要原因。
与采用类似方法的研究相比，我们的研究结果表明，巴西经历了世界上最高的新冠负担（每10万人口）。2020年新冠严重影响了巴西的人口健康，凸显了缺乏有效的缓解措施。
