Quiroz-Ruiz Hans Ramón, Sosa-Flores Jorge Luis, Hernández-Palomino Fiorella Nathalí
Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas, Universidad Nacional Pedro Ruiz Gallo, Lambayeque, Perú.
Laboratorio de Referencia Regional de Salud Pública, Dirección Regional de Salud Cajamarca, Cajamarca, Perú.
Cad Saude Publica. 2021 Jun 23;37(6):e00276020. doi: 10.1590/0102-311X00276020. eCollection 2021.
This study sought to determine the underreporting of tuberculosis (TB) cases in the Cajamarca Region, Peru in 2017 and 2018 through the capture-recapture method and to estimate the TB incidence rate using this method, assess the exhaustiveness of surveillance systems, and describe the epidemiological characteristics of TB in this period. A descriptive, retrospective study was performed in the Cajamarca Region; the surveillance systems were analyzed were the TB Management Information System (SIGTB) and the TB Epidemiological System (SIEPI-TB). Based on the number of cases recorded in each system, the capture-recapture method was applied to obtain an estimation of real cases, validating the data with a log-linear model in the R statistical environment. The largest underreporting rates in the systems were 40.7% in 2017 and 25.6% in 2018; the estimated incidence rates in both years were higher than those reported by the official systems, the most exhaustive surveillance system was SIEPI-TB. The results indicate the existence of worrisome underreporting and the need to monitor the TB surveillance systems.
本研究旨在通过捕获-再捕获法确定2017年和2018年秘鲁卡哈马卡地区结核病（TB）病例的漏报情况，并使用该方法估计结核病发病率，评估监测系统的全面性，并描述该时期结核病的流行病学特征。在卡哈马卡地区进行了一项描述性回顾性研究；分析的监测系统为结核病管理信息系统（SIGTB）和结核病流行病学系统（SIEPI-TB）。根据每个系统记录的病例数，应用捕获-再捕获法来估计实际病例数，并在R统计环境中使用对数线性模型对数据进行验证。各系统中最大漏报率在2017年为40.7%，在2018年为25.6%；两年的估计发病率均高于官方系统报告的发病率，最全面的监测系统是SIEPI-TB。结果表明存在令人担忧的漏报情况，以及监测结核病监测系统的必要性。
