Deputy of Research and Technology, Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, Iran.
Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Arch Iran Med. 2021 May 1;24(5):344-353. doi: 10.34172/aim.2021.51.
In developing countries like Iran, the burden of obesity increases through comorbid diseases. We estimated the mean body mass index (BMI) and prevalence of overweight/obesity by components of sex, age, province, and year in Iran from 1990 to 2016.
Through a comprehensive systematic review, all relevant data sources pooled results with individual level national and sub-national population-based studies. Two stages of age-spatio-temporal modeling and Gaussian process regression were used to estimate mean BMI, followed by estimation of obesity and overweight prevalence through the crosswalk modeling.
In 2016, the age-standardized mean BMI was 27.9 (27.2-28.7) kg/m² in women and 25.9 (25.2-26.5) kg/m² in men. At the same time, the prevalence rates of overweight and obesity were 71.7% (67.9-75.8), and 36.8% (34.1-39.7) in females, and 57.1% (53.7-60.6), and 18.4% (16.9-20) in men. This shows a considerable increase from 1990 when the figures were respectively 24.4 (23.3-25.5) , 36.6% (32.2-41.5), and 8.2% (95% UI: 6.9-9.7) in women, and 23.5 (22.5-24.5), 30% (26.4-34), and 4.7% (4.0-5.5) in men, with 66% attributed to population growth.
Considering the increasing trends of BMI, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) seem far out of reach. We need to call for action, aiming for both weight loss strategies and controlling the comorbidities that mediate high BMI risk.
在伊朗等发展中国家，肥胖症的负担因合并症而增加。我们估计了伊朗 1990 年至 2016 年期间按性别、年龄、省份和年份计算的平均体重指数（BMI）和超重/肥胖的患病率。
通过全面的系统综述，我们汇总了所有相关数据来源，包括个体层面的全国和次国家人口为基础的研究。使用两阶段年龄时空模型和高斯过程回归来估计平均 BMI，然后通过交叉模型估计肥胖和超重的患病率。
2016 年，女性年龄标准化平均 BMI 为 27.9（27.2-28.7）kg/m²，男性为 25.9（25.2-26.5）kg/m²。同时，超重和肥胖的患病率分别为女性 71.7%（67.9-75.8）和 36.8%（34.1-39.7），男性为 57.1%（53.7-60.6）和 18.4%（16.9-20）。这表明，与 1990 年相比，女性的 BMI 分别为 24.4（23.3-25.5）、36.6%（32.2-41.5）和 8.2%（95% UI：6.9-9.7），男性的 BMI 分别为 23.5（22.5-24.5）、30%（26.4-34）和 4.7%（4.0-5.5）相比，有 66%的增长归因于人口增长。
考虑到 BMI 的上升趋势，可持续发展目标（SDGs）似乎遥不可及。我们需要采取行动，既要采取减肥策略，又要控制介导 BMI 高风险的合并症。
