Golestan Research Center of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran.
Stem Cell Research Center, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran.
Arch Iran Med. 2024 Sep 1;27(9):486-493. doi: 10.34172/aim.31168.
Pancreatic cancer (PC) is one of the most malignant cancers with a poor prognosis. Despite advances in the diagnosis and management of PC, the survival rate remains low. In Iran, the incidence of PC is increasing, with mortality rates nearly doubling over the past 25 years. Therefore, this study was designed to assess the temporal variations and incidence of PC in Golestan province, as a prominent hub for gastrointestinal cancers in Iran.
In this cross-sectional study, patient information was obtained from the Golestan Population-Based Cancer Registry (GPCR) from 2006 to 2019. We calculated age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) using the World standard population and reported the rates per 100000 persons-year. To compare ASRs across sexes and residence areas, incidence rate ratios (IRR) were calculated using Poisson regression models. We calculated the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) to assess time trends in incidence rates of PC in Golestan during the study period.
Among a total of 560 PC new cases (mean age of 63.72 years), 46.61% were diagnosed through clinical or paraclinical methods. The crude incidence rate and ASR were 2.24 and 2.95 (95% CI: 2.70‒3.20) per 100000 persons-year, respectively. The ASR of PC was significantly higher in males (3.78; 95% CI: 3.37‒4.19) than females (2.17; 95% CI: 1.88‒2.46) (IRR=1.71; <0.01). The ASR was higher in the urban (3.23; 95% CI: 2.88‒3.58) compared to the rural population (2.65; 95% CI: 2.30‒3.00) (IRR=1.23; =0.02). The ASR of PC increased from 1.97 to 3.53 during 2006 to 2019 with an EAPC of 4.39 (95% CI: -3.56 to 12.75). The EAPCs were 4.85% and 4.37% in women and men, respectively.
Our study showed that the incidence of PC is increasing in the Golestan province. Also, the incidence rate was higher in men, elderly people, and the urban population.
胰腺癌（PC）是预后最差的恶性肿瘤之一。尽管在 PC 的诊断和治疗方面取得了进展，但生存率仍然较低。在伊朗，PC 的发病率正在上升，死亡率在过去 25 年中几乎翻了一番。因此，本研究旨在评估戈勒斯坦省（伊朗主要的胃肠道癌发病中心）PC 的时间变化和发病率。
在这项横断面研究中，我们从 2006 年至 2019 年戈勒斯坦人群癌症登记处（GPCR）获得了患者信息。我们使用世界标准人口计算了年龄标准化发病率（ASR），并报告了每 100000 人年的发病率。为了比较不同性别和居住地区的 ASR，我们使用泊松回归模型计算了发病率比（IRR）。我们计算了估计的年百分比变化（EAPC），以评估研究期间戈勒斯坦 PC 发病率的时间趋势。
在总共 560 例 PC 新发病例（平均年龄为 63.72 岁）中，46.61%通过临床或辅助临床方法诊断。粗发病率和 ASR 分别为 2.24 和 2.95（95%CI：2.70-3.20）/100000 人年。男性的 ASR（3.78；95%CI：3.37-4.19）明显高于女性（2.17；95%CI：1.88-2.46）（IRR=1.71；<0.01）。与农村地区相比，城市（3.23；95%CI：2.88-3.58）的 ASR 更高（2.65；95%CI：2.30-3.00）（IRR=1.23；=0.02）。2006 年至 2019 年期间，PC 的 ASR 从 1.97 增加到 3.53，EAPC 为 4.39（95%CI：-3.56 至 12.75）。女性和男性的 EAPC 分别为 4.85%和 4.37%。
我们的研究表明，戈勒斯坦省的 PC 发病率正在上升。此外，男性、老年人和城市人口的发病率更高。
