Digestive Diseases Research Center, Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Arch Iran Med. 2021 Apr 1;24(4):306-316. doi: 10.34172/aim.2021.43.
Raised blood pressure is a serious risk factor for several non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Iran. In this study, we aimed to estimate the mean of systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and subsequently, the prevalence of hypertension by sex, age, province, and year in Iran.
We conducted a systematic review using PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus databases through December 2017. We also used individual level data from eight national surveys, aggregated data from seven subnational population-based studies, and extracted data reported in 52 published studies. We used a two-stage model including Age-Spatio-Temporal and Gaussian process regression (GPR) to estimate mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure and used a crosswalk model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension by sex, age, province, and year.
The number of hypertensive adults increased in Iran from 1.8 million (882 thousand in women) in 1990 to 13.6 million (7.2 million in women) in 2016. The national age-standardized prevalence of hypertension increased from 8.7% (7.8-9.7) to 28.8% (27.7-30.0) in women and from 8.0% (7.2-8.9) to 24.2% (23.1-25.3) in men from 1990 to 2016. Mean systolic and diastolic blood pressures show a similar increasing trend.
During the past 27 years, we observed an increase in the age-standardized prevalence and mean levels of blood pressure. If the current trend in levels of blood pressure and prevalence of hypertension continue in the coming years, Iran will not achieve the sixth target of the Global Action Plan by 2020 and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030.
高血压是伊朗几种非传染性疾病（NCDs）的严重危险因素。在这项研究中，我们旨在估计伊朗按性别、年龄、省份和年份计算的收缩压（SBP）和舒张压（DBP）的平均值，随后估计高血压的患病率。
我们通过 PubMed、Web of Science 和 Scopus 数据库进行了系统评价，检索时间截至 2017 年 12 月。我们还使用了来自 8 项全国性调查的个体水平数据、来自 7 项次国家级基于人群的研究的汇总数据以及从 52 项已发表研究中提取的数据。我们使用两阶段模型，包括年龄时空和高斯过程回归（GPR）来估计平均收缩压和舒张压，并使用转换模型来估计按性别、年龄、省份和年份计算的高血压患病率。
伊朗高血压成年人的数量从 1990 年的 180 万（女性 88.2 万）增加到 2016 年的 1360 万（女性 720 万）。全国年龄标准化高血压患病率从 1990 年的女性 8.7%（7.8-9.7）增加到 2016 年的 28.8%（27.7-30.0），男性从 8.0%（7.2-8.9）增加到 2016 年的 24.2%（23.1-25.3）。收缩压和舒张压的平均值都呈上升趋势。
在过去的 27 年中，我们观察到血压的年龄标准化患病率和平均值都有所上升。如果未来几年血压水平和高血压患病率的趋势继续下去，伊朗将无法在 2020 年实现全球行动计划的第六个目标，也无法在 2030 年实现可持续发展目标（SDGs）。
