School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Nov;28(44):62628-62639. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-15131-7. Epub 2021 Jul 1.
Population flow can affect regional carbon emissions. Based on the analysis of the dual transmission mechanism of population flow and its effect on carbon emissions, this paper empirically studies the impact of population flow and other related factors on China's carbon emissions through panel econometric regression and heterogeneity analysis with fixed effect model. The results show that, firstly, in the long or short term, China's population flow can reduce the growth of carbon emissions. Secondly, the regional population aging and knowledge structure improvement caused by population flow are helpful to reduce carbon emissions, while the regional urbanization improvement caused by population flow is not significantly correlated with the growth of household miniaturization on carbon emissions. Thirdly, from the perspective of heterogeneous geographical divisions, population flow promotes the increase of carbon emissions in the northwest region of the Hu Huanyong Line (Hu Line), while it is opposite in the southeast region of Hu Line. Fourthly, China's consumption level, per capita GDP, energy intensity, and energy consumption structure have contributed to the growth of carbon emissions, while carbon intensity has a negative effect on carbon emissions. Finally, this paper puts forward relevant suggestions from the perspective of coordinating population policy and energy conservation and emission reduction policy.
人口流动会影响区域碳排放。本文基于人口流动的双重传递机制及其对碳排放影响的分析，利用面板计量回归和固定效应模型的异质性分析，实证研究了人口流动及其他相关因素对中国碳排放的影响。结果表明：第一，在长期或短期，中国的人口流动都能降低碳排放的增长。第二，人口流动引起的区域人口老龄化和知识结构改善有助于减少碳排放，而人口流动引起的区域城市化改善与家庭小型化对碳排放的增长不显著相关。第三，从异质地理分区的角度来看，人口流动促进了胡焕庸线（Hu Line）西北区域的碳排放增加，而在胡 Line 东南区域则相反。第四，中国的消费水平、人均 GDP、能源强度和能源消费结构都促进了碳排放的增长，而碳强度对碳排放有负向影响。最后，本文从协调人口政策和节能减排政策的角度提出了相关建议。
