College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Forestry University, Jiangsu, Nanjing, 210037, China.
School of Economics and Management, Nanjing Institute of Technology, Jiangsu, Nanjing, 211167, China.
J Environ Manage. 2020 Nov 1;273:111123. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111123. Epub 2020 Aug 6.
The Paris Agreement (COP21) further defines the concept of global climate governance as low-carbon green development. Urbanization and carbon emissions are two major characteristics of modern Chinese economic and social development. China's new urbanization requires not only the realization of population, the harmonization of land and economic urbanization also requires the protection of the ecological environment in the process of urbanization to achieve green and low-carbon development. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to explore the influencing factors of carbon emissions and compare their differences based on spatial econometric models and from various perspectives of urbanization. Empirical findings of the study are as follows: (1) The Moran's I indexes are all above 0.5, the spatial effects of regional carbon emissions are significant, and it cannot be ignored. Similarly, it shows that the optimal model is a spatial doubly model with dual fixed effects. (2) Direct effects of population, land, and economic urbanization are positive. Whereas, indirect effect about population urbanization is negative, but its total effect is same direction change with carbon emissions. Indirect and total effect of land urbanization are negative, indirect effect of economic urbanization is small and total effect is significantly positive. (3) Per capita GDP, energy intensity, and environmental regulation variables of control variables are all positive; opening to outside be positive but not obvious.
《巴黎协定》（COP21）进一步将全球气候治理的概念定义为低碳绿色发展。城市化和碳排放是现代中国经济和社会发展的两个主要特征。中国的新型城镇化不仅需要实现人口的城镇化，还需要协调土地和经济的城镇化，在城镇化过程中保护生态环境，实现绿色低碳发展。因此，基于空间计量经济学模型，从城市化的各个角度探讨碳排放的影响因素及其差异，具有重要的理论和现实意义。研究的实证结果如下：（1）莫兰指数均大于 0.5，区域碳排放的空间效应显著，不容忽视。同样表明最优模型是具有双重固定效应的空间双重模型。（2）人口、土地和经济城市化的直接效应为正。而人口城市化的间接效应为负，但总效应与碳排放呈同方向变化。土地城市化的间接和总效应为负，经济城市化的间接效应较小，总效应为显著正。（3）控制变量的人均 GDP、能源强度和环境规制变量均为正；对外开放为正，但不明显。
