Department of Family Medicine, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates University, Tawam Hospital Campus, Al Ain 17666, UAE.
Department of Medical Microbiology and Immunology, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates University, Tawam Hospital Campus, Al Ain 17666, UAE.
J Epidemiol Glob Health. 2021 Sep;11(3):296-301. doi: 10.2991/jegh.k.210621.001. Epub 2021 Jun 29.
We aimed to assess global trends in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)/Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) and evaluate progress toward eradication since the inception of the pandemic. Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 update and the UNAIDS Data 2019. The datasets included annual figures from 1990 to 2019 for HIV/AIDS in 204 countries and all world regions. We analyzed rates and trends for prevalence, incidence, mortality and disability adjusted life years. Analysis of age and gender distribution in different regions was used to assess demographic changes. Forecasting was used to estimate disease burden up to 2040. Although many countries have witnessed a decrease in the incidence, for Russia, Ukraine, Portugal, Brazil, Spain and the United States, the rates of new cases are rising since 2010. This trend is present even in age-standardized analysis, indicating a rise in excess of population growth. Over 0.5% of the world's population is infected. About 5000 new infections occur daily, of which 500 are children. Mortality rates are falling globally; currently at 11 deaths per 100,000 population, forecasted to decrease to 8.5 deaths by 2040. Prevalence continues to increase, with South Africa, Nigeria, Mozambique, India, Kenya and the United States having the highest burden. The total number as well as the rates of new HIV infections are rising every year in Europe, South America, North America and other regions over the last decade. Maternal-to-child transmission continues at high rates despite effective preventive regimens. There is an urgent need to develop programs to curb the rising incidence of HIV.
我们旨在评估全球人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）/获得性免疫缺陷综合征（AIDS）趋势，并评估自该大流行开始以来在消灭该病方面取得的进展。数据取自 2019 年全球疾病负担更新和艾滋病规划署 2019 年数据。这些数据集包括来自 1990 年至 2019 年 204 个国家和世界所有地区的艾滋病毒/艾滋病年度数据。我们分析了流行率、发病率、死亡率和伤残调整生命年的趋势。分析不同地区的年龄和性别分布情况，评估人口结构变化。采用预测方法估计 2040 年之前的疾病负担。虽然许多国家的发病率有所下降，但俄罗斯、乌克兰、葡萄牙、巴西、西班牙和美国自 2010 年以来新发病例率呈上升趋势。即使在年龄标准化分析中，这种趋势也表明增长率超过了人口增长率。全球有超过 0.5%的人口感染了艾滋病毒。每天约有 5000 例新感染病例，其中 500 例为儿童。全球死亡率正在下降；目前每 10 万人中有 11 人死亡，预计到 2040 年将降至 8.5 人死亡。流行率继续上升，南非、尼日利亚、莫桑比克、印度、肯尼亚和美国的负担最重。过去十年中，欧洲、南美洲、北美洲和其他地区的艾滋病毒新发感染总数和感染率每年都在上升。尽管有有效的预防方案，但母婴传播仍居高不下。迫切需要制定遏制艾滋病毒发病率上升的方案。
