政府共同监管下的内河航运污染控制演化博弈
Evolutionary game of inland shipping pollution control under government co-supervision.
机构信息
College of Transport and Communications, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai, China.
College of Transport and Communications, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai, China.
出版信息
Mar Pollut Bull. 2021 Oct;171:112730. doi: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2021.112730. Epub 2021 Jul 21.
In the context of the environmental improvement of inland shipping, this paper studies the interaction mechanism of tripartite behavioral strategy selection among the upstream and downstream governments and shipping companies in neighboring provinces. This paper constructs a tripartite evolutionary game model that introduces the prospect theory, and verifies numerical examples in combination with system dynamics simulation methods. Therefore, this study discusses the influence of evolutionary stability strategies on the development of electric ship industry. The results show that in order to realize effective governance of inland shipping pollution, the optimal evolutionary stability strategies of the three stakeholders should be as follows: active supervision in both upstream and downstream governments, and using clean energy in shipping companies. The improvement of the initial probability and risk preference of the three parties is conducive to promoting the faster and more stable industrial development, while reasonable profit distribution coefficient and compensation cost can promote the benign development of the inland river environmental governance system. In addition, the probability of upstream and downstream governments and shipping companies choosing the optimal strategies is positively related to the government fines, and negatively related to the regulatory costs. In particular, the application of prospect theory makes the result of evolutionary equilibrium more obvious.
在改善内陆航运环境的背景下,本文研究了相邻省份上下游政府和航运公司三方行为策略选择的相互作用机制。本文构建了一个三方进化博弈模型,引入前景理论,并结合系统动力学模拟方法进行了数值实例验证。因此,本研究探讨了进化稳定策略对电动船舶产业发展的影响。结果表明,为了实现对内河航运污染的有效治理,三方利益相关者的最优进化稳定策略应如下:上下游政府积极监管,航运公司使用清洁能源。三方初始概率和风险偏好的提高有利于促进产业更快、更稳定的发展,而合理的利润分配系数和补偿成本可以促进内陆河环境治理制度的良性发展。此外,上下游政府和航运公司选择最优策略的概率与政府罚款呈正相关,与监管成本呈负相关。特别是,前景理论的应用使得进化均衡的结果更加明显。