Piscopo Amy N, Weaver Christopher C, Detenbeck Naomi E
Formerly US Environmental Protection Agency, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Lab, Atlantic Ecology Division.
US Environmental Protection Agency, Center for Public Health and Environmental Assessment, Integrated Environmental Assessment Branch.
J Water Resour Plan Manag. 2021 Mar 23;147(6):1-12. doi: 10.1061/(asce)wr.1943-5452.0001369.
Uncertainty in the impacts of climate change and development on freshwater resources pose significant challenges for water resources management. Integrated and adaptive approaches to water resources management are a promising means of addressing uncertainty that afford flexibility in balancing multiple stakeholder objectives. However, guidance on designing such plans is lacking. In this study, we use multi-objective optimization to strategically incorporate green infrastructure (GI) into water resources management plans that maximize reductions in nutrient loads, minimize stormwater runoff, and minimize costs. Robust decision-making methods are applied to the resulting plan options to evaluate how optimized GI implementation varies under different possible future climates and to determine which solutions would be robust under a range of plausible future conditions. We demonstrate these coupled methods using a case study in southern Massachusetts, to address water quality issues related to point and nonpoint source nutrients in a rapidly developing watershed.
气候变化和发展对淡水资源的影响存在不确定性，给水资源管理带来了重大挑战。水资源管理的综合和适应性方法是应对不确定性的一种有前景的手段，这种方法在平衡多个利益相关者目标方面具有灵活性。然而，目前缺乏关于设计此类计划的指导。在本研究中，我们使用多目标优化方法，将绿色基础设施（GI）策略性地纳入水资源管理计划，以最大限度地减少养分负荷、最小化雨水径流并降低成本。将稳健决策方法应用于所得的计划选项，以评估在不同的未来可能气候条件下，优化后的绿色基础设施实施情况如何变化，并确定在一系列合理的未来条件下哪些解决方案是稳健的。我们通过马萨诸塞州南部的一个案例研究来展示这些耦合方法，以解决快速发展流域中与点源和非点源养分相关的水质问题。
