Tetra Tech, Inc., Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.
U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development, Washington, District of Columbia.
Water Environ Res. 2020 Dec;92(12):2178-2192. doi: 10.1002/wer.1302. Epub 2020 Jul 20.
Stormwater best management practices (BMPs) help mitigate the adverse effects of urban development on stream hydrology and water quality, and are widely specified in development requirements and watershed management plans. However, design of stormwater BMPs largely relies on experience with historic climate, which may not be a reliable guide to the future. To inform BMP design that is robust to future conditions, it is important to examine how potential changes in precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration will affect the performance of BMPs. We use continuous simulation modeling to examine BMP performance under current and potential future climatic conditions and determine the changes needed in site configuration to address future impacts. We perform modeling for five development types in five different regions of the United States and explore both conventional ("gray") and green infrastructure (GI) stormwater management approaches. If stormwater designs are adapted to address potential future climate conditions, this study suggests that the most cost-effective approaches may use both gray and green BMPs. If the magnitude of extreme weather events increases dramatically, then gray practices that provide detention storage may have better cost-effectiveness. Incorporating risk of future climate impacts into stormwater design may help communities become more resilient. PRACTITIONER POINTS: There is a risk that projected changes in meteorological forcing will negatively affect stormwater BMP performance. Under projected future climate conditions, this study suggests the most cost-effective approaches may use both gray and green BMPs. If the magnitude of extreme weather events increases dramatically, gray practices that provide detention storage may have better cost-effectiveness. Flexibility is beneficial in adaptation and resilience planning due to uncertainty in projected precipitation volume and intensity changes.
雨水最佳管理措施 (BMP) 有助于减轻城市发展对溪流水文学和水质的不利影响，并且广泛规定在发展要求和流域管理计划中。然而，雨水 BMP 的设计在很大程度上依赖于历史气候的经验，而这可能不是未来的可靠指南。为了提供对未来条件具有稳健性的 BMP 设计，了解降水、温度和可能的蒸散量的潜在变化将如何影响 BMP 的性能非常重要。我们使用连续模拟模型来检查当前和潜在未来气候条件下 BMP 的性能，并确定需要对场地配置进行哪些更改以应对未来的影响。我们在美国五个不同地区的五种不同发展类型中进行建模，并探索传统的（“灰色”）和绿色基础设施 (GI) 雨水管理方法。如果雨水设计能够适应潜在的未来气候条件，那么本研究表明，最具成本效益的方法可能是同时使用灰色和绿色 BMP。如果极端天气事件的规模急剧增加，那么提供滞留储存的灰色实践可能具有更好的成本效益。将未来气候影响的风险纳入雨水设计中可能有助于社区变得更具弹性。从业者要点：气象强迫的预计变化可能会对雨水 BMP 性能产生负面影响。根据未来气候条件的预测，本研究表明，最具成本效益的方法可能是同时使用灰色和绿色 BMP。如果极端天气事件的规模急剧增加，那么提供滞留储存的灰色实践可能具有更好的成本效益。由于预计降水量和强度变化的不确定性，灵活性在适应和弹性规划中是有益的。
