Ashraf Muhammad, Arshad Adnan, Patel Praharsh M, Khan Adeel, Qamar Huma, Siti-Sundari Ristina, Ghani Muhammad Usman, Amin Ali, Babar Jamilur Rehman
Faculty in the Department of Disaster Management and Development Studies, University of Balochistan, Quetta, 87300 Pakistan.
College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100193 People's Republic of China.
Nat Hazards (Dordr). 2021;109(3):2127-2151. doi: 10.1007/s11069-021-04913-4. Epub 2021 Jul 23.
Climate change-induced disasters show the highest risk for agriculture and livelihoods in rural areas of developing countries. Due to changing rainfall pattern, the arid and semiarid region of Pakistan faces frequent droughts. Farming communities affected by drought disasters are causing serious threats to livelihood, global food crises, environmental migration, and sustainable development. The existing study was designed to quantify two key components through (1) analysis of agrometeorological data (1981-2017) with exploratory data analysis and Mann-Kendall trend analysis; (2) extensive field survey (200 households). The multivariate probit model has been run to detect determinants of coping and adaptive strategies by farmers. Our results showed that the farmers supposed that temperature and rainfall were highly fluctuating in recent years equally. Farmers adopted different coping and adaptive measures that include crop diversification, input adjustment, water management, asset depletion, income diversification, and migration to sustain their livelihood during stress periods. The agrometeorological data analysis revealed that the agricultural vulnerability to drought risks increased significantly, and the survey results projected that 64.7% of the population is exposed to drought directly or indirectly. Sen's slope quantification resulted in (0.025 °C) rise in temperature, (- 2.936 mm) decline in rainfall year. Modeling future scenarios resulted in an increase in temperature up to 0.7 °C, 1.2 °C, and a decrease in precipitation up to 161.48 mm, 103.5 mm in 2040 and 2060. The study evaluated a huge gap in the provision of drought risk resilience services, crop insurance, and climate-smart training practices to build capacities among farmers to cope with the impacts of extreme weather conditions. Our research might provide the groundwork to upgrade actions to drought prevention and early warning in water scarcity areas.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11069-021-04913-4.
气候变化引发的灾害对发展中国家农村地区的农业和生计构成了最高风险。由于降雨模式的变化，巴基斯坦的干旱和半干旱地区经常遭受干旱。受干旱灾害影响的农业社区对生计、全球粮食危机、环境移民和可持续发展构成了严重威胁。现有研究旨在通过以下方式量化两个关键组成部分：（1）利用探索性数据分析和曼-肯德尔趋势分析对农业气象数据（1981 - 2017年）进行分析；（2）进行广泛的实地调查（200户家庭）。已运行多元概率单位模型以检测农民应对和适应策略的决定因素。我们的结果表明，农民认为近年来温度和降雨同样波动剧烈。农民采取了不同的应对和适应措施，包括作物多样化、投入调整、水资源管理、资产耗尽、收入多样化以及迁移，以在压力时期维持生计。农业气象数据分析表明，农业对干旱风险的脆弱性显著增加，调查结果预计64.7%的人口直接或间接面临干旱。森斜率量化结果显示温度每年上升（0.025°C），降雨量每年下降（-2.936毫米）。对未来情景进行建模得出，到2040年和2060年温度将分别升高0.7°C、1.2°C，降水量将分别减少161.48毫米、103.5毫米。该研究评估了在提供干旱风险抵御服务、作物保险以及气候智能培训实践以增强农民应对极端天气条件影响的能力方面存在的巨大差距。我们的研究可能为在缺水地区升级抗旱和预警行动奠定基础。
在线版本包含可在10.1007/s11069-021-04913-4获取的补充材料。
