Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics at School of Public Health, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China.
National Clinical Research Center for Child Health of the Children's Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China.
Cancer. 2021 Nov 1;127(21):4030-4039. doi: 10.1002/cncr.33795. Epub 2021 Aug 9.
Cervical cancer is 1 of the most common cancers in females worldwide. Understanding the most recent global patterns and temporal trends of cervical cancer burden might be helpful for its prevention and control.
Data on cervical cancer (International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, code C53) incidence and mortality in 2018 were extracted from the GLOBOCAN 2018 database and further analyzed for their correlations with the Human Development Index. Temporal trends were analyzed using the annual percent change with joinpoint analysis among 31 countries with highly qualified data from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Plus and World Health Organization mortality databases. Future trends for the next 15 years were predicted using an open-source age-period-cohort model.
Cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates were both negatively correlated with the Human Development Index (r = -0.56 for incidence, r = -0.69 for mortality; P < .001) in cross-sectional analysis, and both remained stable in 12 countries or even decreased in 14 and 18 countries for incidence and mortality, respectively, during the most recent 10 data years. Similar findings were observed for the next 15 years.
Cervical cancer burden was correlated with socioeconomic development. An overwhelming majority of countries had stable or decreasing trends in incidence and mortality rates, especially in those with effective cervical cancer screening programs and human papillomavirus vaccination.
The authors investigated the most up-to-date data from official databases released by the International Agency for Research on Cancer and found that cervical cancer incidence and mortality were negatively correlated with socioeconomic development. Among the 31 countries analyzed, most (26 countries were analyzed for incidence, and 30 were analyzed for mortality) had stable or even decreasing temporal trends over the most recent 10 years, especially in those with effective cervical cancer screening programs. In addition, the predicted trends for the next 15 years were basically consistent with the observed trends among most of the analyzed countries (19 countries for incidence and 26 countries for mortality).
宫颈癌是全球女性中最常见的癌症之一。了解宫颈癌负担的最新全球模式和时间趋势，可能有助于其预防和控制。
从 GLOBOCAN 2018 数据库中提取了 2018 年宫颈癌（国际疾病分类，第十版，代码 C53）发病率和死亡率的数据，并进一步分析了与人类发展指数的相关性。使用来自癌症发病率五大陆加和世界卫生组织死亡率数据库的高质量数据的 31 个国家的年度百分比变化和连接点分析来分析时间趋势。使用开源年龄-时期-队列模型预测未来 15 年的趋势。
宫颈癌发病率和死亡率与人类发展指数呈负相关（发病率的 r 值为-0.56，死亡率的 r 值为-0.69；P <.001），在横断面分析中，在最近的 10 年数据中，12 个国家的发病率和死亡率保持稳定，甚至在 14 个和 18 个国家中分别下降。在未来 15 年也观察到了类似的发现。
宫颈癌负担与社会经济发展有关。绝大多数国家的发病率和死亡率呈稳定或下降趋势，特别是在那些有有效的宫颈癌筛查计划和人乳头瘤病毒疫苗接种的国家。
作者调查了国际癌症研究机构发布的官方数据库中的最新数据，发现宫颈癌的发病率和死亡率与社会经济发展呈负相关。在分析的 31 个国家中，大多数国家（26 个国家分析发病率，30 个国家分析死亡率）在最近 10 年呈稳定甚至下降趋势，特别是在那些有有效的宫颈癌筛查计划的国家。此外，对未来 15 年的预测趋势与大多数分析国家的观察趋势基本一致（19 个国家分析发病率，26 个国家分析死亡率）。
