宫颈癌的全球负担：基于GLOBOCAN 2022的当前估计、时间趋势及未来预测
Global burden of cervical cancer: current estimates, temporal trend and future projections based on the GLOBOCAN 2022.
作者信息
Wu Jie, Jin Qianyun, Zhang Yunmeng, Ji Yuting, Li Jingjing, Liu Xiaomin, Duan Hongyuan, Feng Zhuowei, Liu Ya, Zhang Yacong, Lyu Zhangyan, Yang Lei, Huang Yubei
机构信息
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Key Laboratory of Molecular Cancer Epidemiology, Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control of Human Major Diseases, Ministry of Education, National Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.
Key Laboratory of Carcinogenesis and Translational Research (Ministry of Education), Beijing Office for Cancer Prevention and Control, Peking University Cancer Hospital & Institute, Beijing, China.
出版信息
J Natl Cancer Cent. 2025 Jan 23;5(3):322-329. doi: 10.1016/j.jncc.2024.11.006. eCollection 2025 Jun.
BACKGROUND
Cervical cancer is the only cancer that can be eliminated worldwide. Tracking the latest burden of cervical cancer is critical toward the targets set by World Health Organization (WHO) to eliminate cervical cancer as a major public health problem.
METHODS
All data were extracted from the Global Cancer Observatory (GLOBOCAN) 2022. Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and mortality rates (ASMR) of cervical cancer were compared and linked to Human Development Index (HDI) between populations. The estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were used to characterize the temporal trend in ASIR/ASMR, and demographic estimates were projected up to 2050.
RESULTS
Globally, an estimated 662,044 cases (ASIR: 14.12/100,000) and 348,709 deaths (ASMR: 7.08/100,000) from cervical cancer occurred in 2022, corresponding to the fourth cause of cancer morbidity and mortality in women worldwide. Specifically, 42 % of cases and 39 % of deaths occurred in China (23 % and 16 %) and India (19 % and 23 %). Both ASIR and ASMR of cervical cancer decreased with HDI, and similar decreasing links were observed for both early-onset (0-39 years) and late-onset (≥40 years) cervical cancer. Both ASIR and ASMR of overall cervical cancer showed decreasing trends during 2003-2012 (EAPC: 0.04 % and -1.03 %); however, upward trends were observed for early-onset cervical cancer (EAPC: 1.16 % and 0.57 %). If national rates in 2022 remain stable, the estimated cases and deaths from cervical cancer are projected to increase by 56.8 % and 80.7 % up to 2050. Moreover, the projected increase of early-onset cervical cancer is mainly observed in transitioning countries, while decreased burden is expected in transitioned countries.
CONCLUSIONS
Cervical cancer remains a common cause of cancer death in many countries, especially in transitioning countries. Unless scaling-up preventive interventions, human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and cervical cancer screening, as well as systematic cooperation within government, civil societies, and private enterprises, the global burden of cervical cancer would be expected to increase in the future.
背景
宫颈癌是全球唯一有望消除的癌症。追踪宫颈癌的最新负担情况对于世界卫生组织（WHO）设定的消除宫颈癌这一重大公共卫生问题的目标至关重要。
方法
所有数据均摘自《全球癌症观测站（GLOBOCAN）2022》。比较了宫颈癌的年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）和死亡率（ASMR），并将其与不同人群的人类发展指数（HDI）相关联。采用估计的年度百分比变化（EAPCs）来描述ASIR/ASMR的时间趋势，并对人口统计数据进行了预测，直至2050年。
结果
2022年，全球估计有662,044例宫颈癌病例（ASIR：14.12/10万）和348,709例死亡（ASMR：7.08/10万），分别是全球女性癌症发病和死亡的第四大原因。具体而言，42%的病例和39%的死亡发生在中国（分别占23%和16%）和印度（分别占19%和23%）。宫颈癌的ASIR和ASMR均随HDI的升高而降低，早发型（0 - 39岁）和晚发型（≥40岁）宫颈癌也呈现出类似的下降趋势。2003 - 2012年期间，总体宫颈癌的ASIR和ASMR均呈下降趋势（EAPC分别为0.04%和 -1.03%）；然而，早发型宫颈癌呈上升趋势（EAPC分别为1.16%和0.57%）。如果2022年的各国发病率保持稳定，预计到2050年，宫颈癌的估计病例数和死亡数将分别增加56.8%和80.7%。此外，早发型宫颈癌预计增加的情况主要出现在转型国家，而转型后的国家预计负担将减轻。
结论
在许多国家，尤其是转型国家，宫颈癌仍是癌症死亡的常见原因。除非扩大预防性干预措施、人乳头瘤病毒（HPV）疫苗接种和宫颈癌筛查，以及政府、民间社会和私营企业之间的系统性合作，否则未来全球宫颈癌负担预计将会增加。
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