Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China.
State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100093, China.
Sci Rep. 2021 Sep 6;11(1):13103. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-91273-5.
Global climate change is causing notable shifts in the environmental suitability of the main regions involved in potato cultivation and has, thus, changed the production potential of potatoes. These shifts can be mapped at fine scales to better understand climate change within areas of potato cultivation and to find infrastructural- and breeding-based solutions. As a case study, we have identified and mapped the structural and spatial shifts that occurred in areas suitable for potato cultivation in Jilin Province, China. We identified a discontinuity in climate change trends between 1961 and 2018 based on data for Jilin Province, and analyzed the averages and linear trends for six important climatic parameters. We used the averages of these climatic parameters to establish climate models for the province and determined cultivation using a multi-criteria, decision-based model that integrates Analytical Hierarchy Process Weighted Principal Component Analysis (AHP-PCA) and Geographic Information System (GIS). We mapped the environmentally suitable areas for potato cultivation at a 3-km resolution based on the geo-climate model for each time period and analyzed differences between them. We found that "Most suitable" areas for potato cultivation were mainly distributed in the central area of Jilin Province, "Suitable" areas were located in the northwestern plains, and "Sub-suitable" areas were located in the eastern mountainous areas. In contrast, "Not suitable" areas occur mainly in the high-altitude areas in the east. The areas of "Most suitable" and "Suitable" areas for potato cultivation in Jilin Province were increasing, with increasing rates of 0.37 × 1,000 km decade (R = 0.58, P < 0.01) and 0.20 × 1,000 km decade (R = 0.28, P < 0.01), respectively, while the extent of "Sub-suitable" areas is decreasing, with a decreasing rate of 0.58 × 1,000 km decade (R = 0.53, P < 0.05). The area of "Not suitable" areas had undergone little change. "Most suitable" and "Suitable" areas for potato cultivation showed a trend towards northward expansion. Overall, our results suggest that global climate change has had a positive impact on potato cultivation in Jilin Province over the past 58 years.
全球气候变化正在导致主要马铃薯种植区的环境适宜性发生显著变化，从而改变了马铃薯的生产潜力。这些变化可以在精细尺度上进行映射，以更好地了解马铃薯种植区的气候变化，并找到基于基础设施和育种的解决方案。作为一个案例研究，我们已经确定并绘制了中国吉林省适合马铃薯种植的地区的结构和空间变化。我们根据吉林省的数据，发现 1961 年至 2018 年期间气候变化趋势存在不连续，并分析了六个重要气候参数的平均值和线性趋势。我们使用这些气候参数的平均值为该省建立气候模型，并使用综合层次分析法加权主成分分析（AHP-PCA）和地理信息系统（GIS）的多标准决策模型来确定种植。我们根据每个时间段的地理气候模型，以 3 公里的分辨率绘制马铃薯种植的环境适宜区，并分析它们之间的差异。我们发现，马铃薯种植的“最适宜”区主要分布在吉林省中部地区，“适宜”区位于西北部平原，“次适宜”区位于东部山区。相比之下，“不适宜”区主要分布在东部的高海拔地区。吉林省马铃薯种植的“最适宜”和“适宜”区面积不断增加，增长率分别为 0.37×1000 平方公里十年（R=0.58，P<0.01）和 0.20×1000 平方公里十年（R=0.28，P<0.01），而“次适宜”区的面积则在减少，减少率为 0.58×1000 平方公里十年（R=0.53，P<0.05）。“不适宜”区的面积变化不大。马铃薯种植的“最适宜”和“适宜”区呈现向北扩张的趋势。总体而言，我们的研究结果表明，过去 58 年，全球气候变化对吉林省马铃薯种植产生了积极影响。
