Department of Nutrition, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
Nature. 2021 Oct;598(7880):315-320. doi: 10.1038/s41586-021-03917-1. Epub 2021 Sep 15.
Despite contributing to healthy diets for billions of people, aquatic foods are often undervalued as a nutritional solution because their diversity is often reduced to the protein and energy value of a single food type ('seafood' or 'fish'). Here we create a cohesive model that unites terrestrial foods with nearly 3,000 taxa of aquatic foods to understand the future impact of aquatic foods on human nutrition. We project two plausible futures to 2030: a baseline scenario with moderate growth in aquatic animal-source food (AASF) production, and a high-production scenario with a 15-million-tonne increased supply of AASFs over the business-as-usual scenario in 2030, driven largely by investment and innovation in aquaculture production. By comparing changes in AASF consumption between the scenarios, we elucidate geographic and demographic vulnerabilities and estimate health impacts from diet-related causes. Globally, we find that a high-production scenario will decrease AASF prices by 26% and increase their consumption, thereby reducing the consumption of red and processed meats that can lead to diet-related non-communicable diseases while also preventing approximately 166 million cases of inadequate micronutrient intake. This finding provides a broad evidentiary basis for policy makers and development stakeholders to capitalize on the potential of aquatic foods to reduce food and nutrition insecurity and tackle malnutrition in all its forms.
尽管水生食品为数十亿人提供了健康饮食，但由于其多样性常常被简化为单一食物类型（“海鲜”或“鱼类”）的蛋白质和能量价值，因此往往被低估为一种营养解决方案。在这里，我们创建了一个连贯的模型，将陆生食品与近 3000 种水生食品结合起来，以了解水生食品对人类营养的未来影响。我们预测了到 2030 年的两种可能情况：一种是水生动物源食品（AASF）生产适度增长的基线情景，另一种是高生产情景，即在 2030 年比常规情景增加 1500 万吨 AASF 供应，主要由水产养殖生产的投资和创新驱动。通过比较两种情景下 AASF 消费的变化，我们阐明了地理和人口脆弱性，并估计了饮食相关原因造成的健康影响。在全球范围内，我们发现高生产情景将使 AASF 价格降低 26%，并增加其消费，从而减少导致饮食相关非传染性疾病的红色和加工肉类的消费，同时防止约 1.66 亿例微量营养素摄入不足。这一发现为政策制定者和发展利益相关者提供了广泛的证据基础，以便利用水生食品的潜力来减少粮食和营养不安全，并解决各种形式的营养不良问题。
