Department of Physics, Regional Campus of International Excellence Campus Mare Nostrum, University of Murcia, Spain.
Unit of Public Health and Environmental Care, Department of Preventive Medicine, University of Valencia, Valencia, Spain; CIBER Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain.
Environ Res. 2022 Mar;204(Pt A):112012. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.112012. Epub 2021 Sep 13.
The scientific literature is scarce when referring to the influence of atmospheric pollutants on neurodegenerative diseases for present and future climate change scenarios. In this sense, this contribution evaluates the incidence of dementia (Alzheimer's disease, AD, and dementia from unspecified cause, DU) occurring in Europe associated with the exposure to air pollution (essentially NO and PM2.5) for the present climatic period (1991-2010) and for a future climate change scenario (RCP8.5, 2031-2050). The GEMM methodology has been applied to air pollution simulations using the chemistry/climate regional model WRF-Chem. Present population data were obtained from NASA's Center for Socioeconomic Data and Applications (SEDAC); while future population projections for the year 2050 were derived from the United Nations (UN) Department of Economic and Social Affairs-Population Dynamics. Overall, the estimated incidence rate (cases per year) of AD and DU associated with exposure to air pollution over Europe is 498,000 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 348,600-647,400] and 314,000 (95% CI 257,500-401,900), respectively. An important increase in the future incidence rate is projected (around 72% for both types of dementia) when considering the effect of climate change together with the foreseen changes in the future population, because of the expected aging of European population. The climate penalty (impacts of future climate change alone on air quality) has a limited effect on the total changes of dementia (approx. 0.5%), because the large increase in the incidence rate over southern Europe is offset by its decrease over more northern countries, favored by an improvement of air pollution caused by the projected enhancement of rainfall.
当涉及到大气污染物对神经退行性疾病的影响以及当前和未来气候变化情景时，科学文献非常匮乏。在这种情况下，本研究评估了在当前气候时期（1991-2010 年）和未来气候变化情景（RCP8.5，2031-2050 年）中，欧洲因暴露于空气污染（主要是 NO 和 PM2.5）而导致的痴呆症（阿尔茨海默病、AD 和不明原因痴呆、DU）的发病率。GEMM 方法已应用于使用化学/气候区域模型 WRF-Chem 进行的空气污染模拟。目前的人口数据来自美国宇航局社会经济数据和应用中心（SEDAC）；而 2050 年的未来人口预测则来自联合国经济和社会事务部-人口动态。总体而言，与欧洲地区暴露于空气污染相关的 AD 和 DU 的估计发病率（每年病例数）分别为 498,000 [95%置信区间（95%CI）为 348,600-647,400]和 314,000（95%CI 为 257,500-401,900）。考虑到气候变化的影响以及未来人口的预期变化，预计未来发病率会显著增加（两种类型的痴呆症都增加约 72%），这是因为欧洲人口预期老龄化的影响。气候惩罚（未来气候变化对空气质量的单独影响）对痴呆症的总变化影响有限（约为 0.5%），因为由于预计降雨量增加导致空气污染改善，南部欧洲的发病率大幅增加，抵消了北部国家发病率的下降。
