Tarín-Carrasco Patricia, Im Ulas, Geels Camilla, Palacios-Peña Laura, Jiménez-Guerrero Pedro
Department of Physics, Regional Campus of International Excellence Campus Mare Nostrum, University of Murcia, 30100 Murcia, Spain.
Aarhus University, Department of Environmental Science, Frederiksborgvej 399, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark.
Environ Int. 2021 Aug;153:106517. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2021.106517. Epub 2021 Mar 23.
The World Health Organization estimates that around 7 million people die every year from exposure to fine particles (PM) inpolluted air. Here, the number of premature deaths in Europe from different diseases associated to the ambient exposure to PM have here been studied both for present (1991-2010) and future periods (2031-2050, RCP8.5 scenario). This contribution combines different state-of-the-art approaches (use of high-resolution climate/chemistry simulations over Europe for providing air quality data; use of different baseline mortality data for specific European regions; inclusion of future population projections and dynamical changes for 2050 obtained from the United Nations (UN) Population Projections or use of non-linear exposure-response functions) to estimate the premature mortality due to PM. The mortality endpoints included in this study are Lung Cancer (LC), Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), Cerebrovascular Disease (CEV), Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD), Lower Respiratory Infection (LRI) and other Non-Communicable Diseases (other NCDs). Different risk ratio and baseline mortalities for each disease end each age range have been estimated individually. The results indicate that the annual excess mortality rate from fine particulate matter in Europe is 904,000 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 733,100-1,067,800], increasing by 73% in 2050s (1,560,000; 95% CI 1,260,000-1,840,000); meanwhile population decreases from 808 to 806 million according to the UN estimations. The results show that IHD is the main cause of premature mortality in Europe associated to PM (around 48%) both for the present and future periods. Despite several marked regional differences, premature deaths associated to all the endpoints included in this study will increase in the future period due to the climate penalty but especially because of changes in the population projected and its aging.
世界卫生组织估计，每年约有700万人死于接触污染空气中的细颗粒物（PM）。在此，对欧洲当前（1991 - 2010年）和未来时期（2031 - 2050年，RCP8.5情景）与环境暴露于PM相关的不同疾病的过早死亡人数进行了研究。本研究结合了不同的先进方法（利用欧洲高分辨率气候/化学模拟提供空气质量数据；使用欧洲特定地区的不同基线死亡率数据；纳入未来人口预测以及从联合国（UN）人口预测中获得的2050年动态变化，或使用非线性暴露 - 反应函数）来估计因PM导致的过早死亡率。本研究纳入的死亡终点包括肺癌（LC）、慢性阻塞性肺疾病（COPD）、脑血管疾病（CEV）、缺血性心脏病（IHD）、下呼吸道感染（LRI）和其他非传染性疾病（其他NCDs）。已分别估计了每个疾病终点在每个年龄范围的不同风险比和基线死亡率。结果表明，欧洲细颗粒物导致的年度超额死亡率为904,000 [95%置信区间（95%CI）733,100 - 1,067,800]，在2050年代增加73%（1,560,000；95%CI 1,260,000 - 1,840,000）；同时，根据联合国估计，人口从8.08亿减少到8.06亿。结果表明，无论是当前还是未来时期，IHD都是欧洲与PM相关的过早死亡的主要原因（约48%）。尽管存在一些明显的地区差异，但由于气候惩罚，尤其是由于预计人口变化及其老龄化，本研究纳入的所有终点相关的过早死亡在未来时期都将增加。
