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具有潜伏期感染性和家庭隔离的两种新型随机流行病模型的周期性和稳态分布

Periodicity and stationary distribution of two novel stochastic epidemic models with infectivity in the latent period and household quarantine.

作者信息

Shangguan Dongchen, Liu Zhijun, Wang Lianwen, Tan Ronghua

机构信息

School of Mathematics and Statistics, Hubei Minzu University, Enshi, 445000 Hubei People's Republic of China.

出版信息

J Appl Math Comput. 2022;68(4):2551-2570. doi: 10.1007/s12190-021-01627-5. Epub 2021 Sep 15.

Abstract

Two types of stochastic epidemic models are formulated, in which both infectivity in the latent period and household quarantine on the susceptible are incorporated. With the help of Lyapunov functions and Has'minskii's theory, we derive that, for the nonautonomous periodic version with white noises, it owns a positive periodic solution. For the other version with white and telephone noises, we construct stochastic Lyapunov function with regime switching to present easily verifiable sufficient criteria for the existence of ergodic stationary distribution. Also, we introduce a series of numerical simulations to support our analytical findings. At last, a brief discussion of our theoretical results shows that the stochastic perturbations and household quarantine measures can significantly affect both periodicity and stationary distribution.

摘要

建立了两种随机流行病模型,其中纳入了潜伏期的传染性和对易感人群的家庭隔离。借助李雅普诺夫函数和哈斯明斯基理论,我们推导得出,对于带有白噪声的非自治周期模型,它有一个正周期解。对于带有白噪声和电话噪声的另一种模型,我们构造了具有状态切换的随机李雅普诺夫函数,以给出易于验证的遍历平稳分布存在的充分准则。此外,我们进行了一系列数值模拟来支持我们的分析结果。最后,对我们的理论结果进行简要讨论表明,随机扰动和家庭隔离措施会显著影响周期性和平稳分布。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d1f1/8440746/894e05d3c9c6/12190_2021_1627_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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