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一个具有潜伏期传染性和对易感者进行居家隔离的随机流行病模型。

A stochastic epidemic model with infectivity in incubation period and homestead-isolation on the susceptible.

作者信息

Shangguan Dongchen, Liu Zhijun, Wang Lianwen, Tan Ronghua

机构信息

School of Mathematics and Statistics, Hubei Minzu University, Enshi, 445000 Hubei People's Republic of China.

出版信息

J Appl Math Comput. 2021;67(1-2):785-805. doi: 10.1007/s12190-021-01504-1. Epub 2021 Feb 15.

Abstract

A stochastic epidemic model with infectivity rate in incubation period and homestead-isolation on the susceptible is developed with the aim of revealing the effect of stochastic white noise on the long time behavior. A good understanding of extinction and strong persistence in the mean of the disease is obtained. Also, we derive sufficient criteria for the existence of a unique ergodic stationary distribution of the model. Our theoretical results show that the suitably large noise can make the disease extinct while the relatively small noise is advantageous for persistence of the disease and stationary distribution.

摘要

建立了一个具有潜伏期感染率和对易感者进行居家隔离的随机流行病模型,旨在揭示随机白噪声对长期行为的影响。对疾病的灭绝和均值意义下的强持续性有了很好的理解。此外,我们还推导了该模型存在唯一遍历平稳分布的充分准则。我们的理论结果表明,适当大的噪声可使疾病灭绝,而相对小的噪声有利于疾病的持续存在和平稳分布。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3abe/7882865/1de8574ca320/12190_2021_1504_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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