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2020年1月至4月意大利的新冠疫情与超额死亡率:最年长者面临哪些风险?

COVID-19 and the excess of mortality in Italy from January to April 2020: what are the risks for oldest old?

作者信息

Nicotra Eraldo Francesco, Pili Roberto, Gaviano Luca, Carrogu Gian Pietro, Berti Roberta, Grassi Paola, Petretto Donatella Rita

机构信息

Department of Education, Psychology and Philosophy, University of Cagliari.

Global Community on Longevity, Cagliari.

出版信息

J Public Health Res. 2021 Sep 20;11(1):2399. doi: 10.4081/jphr.2021.2399.

DOI:10.4081/jphr.2021.2399
PMID:34544221
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8874849/
Abstract

In February 2020, Italy has been the first country in Europe fighting against COVID-19. In March 2020, Italian government declared national lockdown. Until May 4th, people stayed in home confinement and only the so-called "essential works and activities" were continued. Like in other countries, both for the disease severity and for the risk of death, the higher the age of people the higher the risk. In the first months of 2020, Italy saw a very high number of deaths related to COVID-19, with a huge age effect, and there is an agreement on the view that there had been also an excess of mortality and on the role of mortality as a correct way to reflect the dynamics of the virus's spread. In this paper we briefly discuss the trends of mortality during the first 4 months of 2020 according to the data by the Italian National Institute of Statistics.

摘要

2020年2月,意大利成为欧洲首个抗击新冠疫情的国家。2020年3月,意大利政府宣布全国封锁。直到5月4日,人们都居家隔离,只有所谓的“必要工作和活动”得以继续。和其他国家一样,无论是就疾病的严重程度还是死亡风险而言,年龄越大,风险越高。在2020年的头几个月里,意大利因新冠疫情死亡的人数非常多,呈现出巨大的年龄效应,而且人们一致认为,死亡率过高,且死亡率是反映病毒传播动态的正确方式。在本文中,我们根据意大利国家统计局的数据简要讨论2020年头4个月的死亡率趋势。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a12a/8874849/648a1e389bc7/jphr-11-1-2399-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a12a/8874849/e078f8595847/jphr-11-1-2399-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a12a/8874849/648a1e389bc7/jphr-11-1-2399-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a12a/8874849/e078f8595847/jphr-11-1-2399-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a12a/8874849/648a1e389bc7/jphr-11-1-2399-g004.jpg

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本文引用的文献

1
Older People Living in Long-Term Care Facilities and Mortality Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy: Preliminary Epidemiological Data and Lessons to Learn.意大利新冠疫情期间长期护理机构中的老年人及死亡率:初步流行病学数据与经验教训
Front Psychiatry. 2020 Oct 14;11:586524. doi: 10.3389/fpsyt.2020.586524. eCollection 2020.
2
COVID-19 pandemic and total mortality in the first six months of 2020 in Italy.2020 年上半年 COVID-19 大流行与意大利总死亡率。
Med Lav. 2020 Oct 31;111(5):351-353. doi: 10.23749/mdl.v111i5.10786.
3
Estimating weekly excess mortality at sub-national level in Italy during the COVID-19 pandemic.
估算意大利 COVID-19 大流行期间国家以下级别每周超额死亡率。
PLoS One. 2020 Oct 9;15(10):e0240286. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0240286. eCollection 2020.
4
Unexpected positive correlation between human development index and risk of infections and deaths of COVID-19 in Italy.意大利人类发展指数与新冠病毒感染及死亡风险之间意外的正相关关系。
One Health. 2020 Dec;10:100174. doi: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2020.100174. Epub 2020 Sep 29.
5
Estimating the severity of COVID-19: Evidence from the Italian epicenter.估算 COVID-19 的严重程度:来自意大利震中地区的证据。
PLoS One. 2020 Oct 1;15(10):e0239569. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0239569. eCollection 2020.
6
COVID-19 in Italy: An Analysis of Death Registry Data.意大利的 COVID-19 疫情:死亡登记数据分析。
J Public Health (Oxf). 2020 Nov 23;42(4):723-730. doi: 10.1093/pubmed/fdaa165.
7
Are official confirmed cases and fatalities counts good enough to study the COVID-19 pandemic dynamics? A critical assessment through the case of Italy.官方公布的确诊病例数和死亡人数足以用于研究新冠疫情动态吗?以意大利为例的批判性评估。
Nonlinear Dyn. 2020;101(3):1951-1979. doi: 10.1007/s11071-020-05761-w. Epub 2020 Jun 26.
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Association between the spread of COVID-19 and weather-climatic parameters.新冠病毒(COVID-19)传播与气象气候参数的关联。
Eur Rev Med Pharmacol Sci. 2020 Aug;24(15):8226-8231. doi: 10.26355/eurrev_202008_22512.
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Excess Deaths From COVID-19 and Other Causes, March-April 2020.2020 年 3 月-4 月 COVID-19 和其他原因导致的超额死亡人数。
JAMA. 2020 Aug 4;324(5):510-513. doi: 10.1001/jama.2020.11787.
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Factors associated with increased all-cause mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy.意大利新冠疫情期间与全因死亡率增加相关的因素。
Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Sep;98:121-124. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.06.077. Epub 2020 Jun 26.