College of Wildlife and Protected Area, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin, Heilongjiang province, P. R. China.
Key Laboratory of Wildlife diseases and Biosecurity Management of Heilongjiang Province, Harbin, Heilongjiang province, The People's Republic of China.
PLoS One. 2021 Sep 23;16(9):e0257898. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0257898. eCollection 2021.
In pan Pamir Plateau countries, Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) has brought huge losses to the livestock industry and threaten the endangered wildlife. In unknown regions, revealing PPRV transmission among countries is the premise of effective prevention and control, therefore calls for quantified monitoring on disease communication among countries. In this paper, a MaxEnt model was built for the first time to predict the PPR risk within the research area. The least cost path (LCP) for PPR transboundary communication were calculated and referred to as the maximum available paths (MAP). The results show that there are many places with high-risk in the research area, and the domestic risk in China is lower than that in foreign countries and is mainly determined by human activities. Five LCPs representing corridors among Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Pakistan, India and China were obtained. This study proves for the first time that there is the possibility of cross-border transmission of diseases by wild and domestic animals. In the future, it will play an important role in monitoring the PPR epidemic and blocking-up its cross-border transmission.
在整个帕米尔高原地区，小反刍兽疫（PPR）给畜牧业带来了巨大的损失，同时也威胁到濒危野生动物的生存。在未知地区，揭示国家间 PPRV 的传播是有效预防和控制的前提，因此需要对国家间的疾病传播进行量化监测。本文首次建立了 MaxEnt 模型来预测研究区域内的 PPR 风险。计算了小反刍兽疫跨界传播的最小成本路径（LCP），并将其称为最大可用路径（MAP）。结果表明，研究区域内存在许多高风险地区，中国国内的风险低于国外，主要由人类活动决定。获得了代表哈萨克斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、巴基斯坦、印度和中国之间走廊的 5 条 LCP。本研究首次证明了野生动物和家畜跨界传播疾病的可能性。未来，它将在监测 PPR 疫情和阻断其跨境传播方面发挥重要作用。
