Center of Conservation Medicine & Ecological Safety, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, P. R. China.
The Key Laboratory of Wildlife Diseases and Biosecurity Management, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, P. R. China.
PLoS One. 2024 Aug 16;19(8):e0306746. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0306746. eCollection 2024.
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a severe, highly contagious viral disease of livestock that has a significant economic impact on domestic animals and threatens wildlife survival in China and border countries. However, effective surveillance and prevention of this disease is often incomplete and unattainable due to the cost, the great diversity of wildlife hosts, the changing range and dynamics, and the diversity of FMDV. In this study, we used predictive models to reveal the spread and risk of FMD in anticipation of identifying key nodes to control its spread. For the first time, the spatial distribution of FMD serotype O was predicted in western China and border countries using a niche model, which is a combination of eco-geographic, human, topographic, and vegetation variables. The transboundary least-cost pathways (LCPs) model for ungulates in the study area were also calculated. Our study indicates that FMD serotype O survival is seasonal at low altitudes (March and June) and more sensitive to temperature differences at high altitudes. FMD serotype O risk was higher in Central Asian countries and both were highly correlated with the population variables. Ten LCPs were obtained representing Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and China.
口蹄疫（FMD）是一种严重的、高度传染性的家畜病毒病，对中国国内动物和边境国家的野生动物生存构成重大经济威胁。然而，由于成本、野生动物宿主的巨大多样性、范围和动态的变化以及 FMDV 的多样性，这种疾病的有效监测和预防往往是不完整和无法实现的。在这项研究中，我们使用预测模型来揭示 FMD 的传播和风险，以期确定控制其传播的关键节点。我们首次使用生态地理、人为、地形和植被变量的组合，通过生态位模型预测了中国西部和边境国家的 O 型口蹄疫血清型的空间分布。还计算了研究区域中食草动物的跨界最低成本路径（LCP）模型。我们的研究表明，O 型口蹄疫血清型在低海拔地区（3 月和 6 月）的生存具有季节性，而在高海拔地区对温度差异更为敏感。中亚国家的 O 型口蹄疫血清型风险更高，两者均与人口变量高度相关。得到了 10 条代表巴基斯坦、哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦和中国的 LCP。
