Giovanis Eleftherios, Ozdamar Oznur
Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of International Trade and Business, Izmir Bakircay University, Menemen, İzmir, Turkey.
Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, Izmir Bakircay University, Menemen, İzmir, Turkey.
Clim Change. 2022;172(3-4):34. doi: 10.1007/s10584-022-03388-x. Epub 2022 Jun 13.
Lower tax revenues and greater government spending result in higher deficits and public debt. As a result, determining the degree of budgetary effects is vital, but important to assess the persistence of these effects. We aim to investigate the impact of climate change on the fiscal balance and public debt in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa. The empirical analysis relies on panel data in the period 1990-2019 and employs various models. The findings show that temperature changes adversely affect the government budget and increase debt, but we find no significant impact of changes in rainfall. The average temperature decreases fiscal balance by 0.3 percent and increases debt by 1.87 percent. Using projections of temperature and rainfall over the years 2020 to 2099, we find a significant decrease in the fiscal balance at 7.3 percent and an increase in the public debt at 16 percent in 2060-2079 and 18 percent in 2080-2099 under the assumption of a high greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario. On the contrary, under the low GHG emission scenario, the fiscal balance deteriorates by 1.7 percent in 2020-2039 and 2.2 percent in 2080-2099, while public debt rises by 5 percent in 2020-2039 and 6.3 percent in 2080-2099.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-022-03388-x.
较低的税收收入和更多的政府支出导致更高的赤字和公共债务。因此，确定预算影响的程度至关重要，但评估这些影响的持续性也很重要。我们旨在研究气候变化对中东和北非国家财政平衡和公共债务的影响。实证分析依赖于1990 - 2019年期间的面板数据，并采用了各种模型。研究结果表明，气温变化对政府预算产生不利影响并增加债务，但我们发现降雨变化没有显著影响。平均气温使财政平衡下降0.3%，债务增加1.87%。利用2020年至2099年的气温和降雨预测，我们发现在高温室气体（GHG）排放情景假设下，2060 - 2079年财政平衡显著下降7.3%，公共债务增加16%，2080 - 2099年公共债务增加18%。相反，在低温室气体排放情景下，2020 - 2039年财政平衡恶化1.7%，2080 - 2099年恶化2.2%，而2020 - 2039年公共债务上升5%，2080 - 2099年上升6.3%。
在线版本包含可在10.1007/s10584 - 022 - 03388 - x获取的补充材料。
