Cheung William W L, Frölicher Thomas L, Lam Vicky W Y, Oyinlola Muhammed A, Reygondeau Gabriel, Sumaila U Rashid, Tai Travis C, Teh Lydia C L, Wabnitz Colette C C
Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Sci Adv. 2021 Oct;7(40):eabh0895. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abh0895. Epub 2021 Oct 1.
Extreme temperature events have occurred in all ocean basins in the past two decades with detrimental impacts on marine biodiversity, ecosystem functions, and services. However, global impacts of temperature extremes on fish stocks, fisheries, and dependent people have not been quantified. Using an integrated climate-biodiversity-fisheries-economic impact model, we project that, on average, when an annual high temperature extreme occurs in an exclusive economic zone, 77% of exploited fishes and invertebrates therein will decrease in biomass while maximum catch potential will drop by 6%, adding to the decadal-scale mean impacts under climate change. The net negative impacts of high temperature extremes on fish stocks are projected to cause losses in fisheries revenues and livelihoods in most maritime countries, creating shocks to fisheries social-ecological systems particularly in climate-vulnerable areas. Our study highlights the need for rapid adaptation responses to extreme temperatures in addition to carbon mitigation to support sustainable ocean development.
在过去二十年中,所有大洋盆地都发生了极端温度事件,对海洋生物多样性、生态系统功能和服务产生了不利影响。然而,极端温度对鱼类种群、渔业及相关人群的全球影响尚未得到量化。我们使用一个综合的气候-生物多样性-渔业-经济影响模型预测,平均而言,当专属经济区内每年出现一次高温极端事件时,其中77%的已开发鱼类和无脊椎动物生物量将会减少,同时最大捕捞潜力将下降6%,这加剧了气候变化下十年尺度的平均影响。预计高温极端事件对鱼类种群的净负面影响将导致大多数沿海国家渔业收入和生计的损失,对渔业社会生态系统造成冲击,尤其是在气候脆弱地区。我们的研究强调,除了减少碳排放以支持海洋可持续发展外,还需要对极端温度迅速做出适应性反应。