Carfora Alfonso, Scandurra Giuseppe, Thomas Antonio
Italian Revenue Agency, Via C. Colombo Roma, Italy.
Department of Management and Quantitative Studies, University of Naples Parthenope, Napoli, Italy.
Energy Policy. 2022 Feb;161:112597. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112597. Epub 2021 Sep 17.
The COVID-19 pandemic is manifesting its devastating effects in multiple directions, even indirectly affecting the health of citizens, for instance, by increasing the level of energy poverty (EP). As part of the studies that are trying to frame the consequences of the pandemic, this paper aims to identify the effects on EP in the coming years in a bid to identify the countries of the European Union most affected and the time span necessary to return to a path to reduce EP. For this purpose, an analysis based on the supervised learning algorithms of dynamic factor models is carried out. The outcomes of this investigation show that the negative effects of the pandemic on the level of EP will be reabsorbed very slowly, not before 2025, and in any case with substantial differences between countries, further widening the gap between countries with low levels of EP and those with greater EP levels.
新冠疫情正在多方面展现其毁灭性影响，甚至间接影响公民健康，例如，通过加剧能源贫困（EP）程度。作为试图梳理疫情后果的研究的一部分，本文旨在确定未来几年对能源贫困的影响，以找出受影响最严重的欧盟国家以及回归减少能源贫困道路所需的时间跨度。为此，开展了基于动态因子模型监督学习算法的分析。这项调查结果表明，疫情对能源贫困程度的负面影响将非常缓慢地得到缓解，不会早于2025年，而且无论如何各国之间存在显著差异，这将进一步扩大能源贫困水平低的国家与能源贫困水平高的国家之间的差距。
