Department of Fish and Wildlife Sciences, College of Natural Resources, University of Idaho, Moscow, Idaho, 83844, USA.
The Wilderness Society, Bozeman, Montana, 59715, USA.
Ecol Appl. 2022 Jan;32(1):e02471. doi: 10.1002/eap.2471. Epub 2021 Nov 8.
Wilderness areas are not immune to changes in land use, land cover, and/or climate. Future changes will intensify the balancing act of maintaining ecological conditions and untrammeled character within wilderness areas. We assessed the quantitative and spatial changes in land use, land cover, and climate predicted to occur in and around wilderness areas by (1) quantifying projected changes in land use and land cover around wilderness areas; (2) evaluating if public lands surrounding wilderness areas can buffer future land-use change; (3) quantifying future climate conditions in and around wilderness areas; and (4) identifying wilderness areas expected to experience the most change in land use, land cover, and climate. We used projections of land use (four variables), land cover (five variables), and climate (nine variables) to assess changes for 707 wilderness areas in the contiguous United States by mid-21st century under two scenarios (medium-low and high). We ranked all wilderness areas relative to each other by summing and ranking decile values for each land use, land cover, and climate variable and calculating a multivariate metric of future change. All wilderness areas were projected to experience some level of change by mid-century. The greatest land-use changes were associated with increases in agriculture, clear cutting, and developed land, while the greatest land cover changes were observed for grassland, forest, and shrubland. In 51.6% and 73.8% of wilderness areas, core area of natural vegetation surrounding wilderness was projected to decrease for the medium-low and high scenarios, respectfully. Presence of public land did not mitigate the influence of land-use change around wilderness areas. Geographically, projected changes occurred throughout the contiguous U.S., with areas in the northeast and upper Midwest projected to have the greatest land-use and climate change and the southwestern U.S. projected to undergo the greatest land cover and climate change. Our results provide insights into potential future threats to wilderness areas and the challenges associated with wilderness stewardship and climate adaptation. Despite the high degree of protection and remoteness of wilderness areas, effective management and preservation of these lands must consider future changes in land use, land cover, and climate.
荒野地区并非不受土地利用、土地覆盖和/或气候变化的影响。未来的变化将加剧维持荒野地区生态条件和不受干扰特征的平衡行动。我们评估了（1）量化荒野地区周围土地利用和土地覆盖的预计变化；（2）评估周围的公共土地是否可以缓冲未来的土地利用变化；（3）量化荒野地区及其周围未来的气候条件；以及（4）确定预计在土地利用、土地覆盖和气候方面发生最大变化的荒野地区，以了解荒野地区内部和周围的土地利用、土地覆盖和气候的定量和空间变化。我们使用土地利用（四个变量）、土地覆盖（五个变量）和气候（九个变量）的预测，根据两个情景（中低和高）评估到 21 世纪中叶美国大陆 707 个荒野地区的变化。我们通过对每个土地利用、土地覆盖和气候变量的十位数值求和并排序，然后计算未来变化的多变量指标，对所有荒野地区进行相互排名。预计到本世纪中叶，所有荒野地区都将经历某种程度的变化。最大的土地利用变化与农业、砍伐和开发土地的增加有关，而最大的土地覆盖变化发生在草原、森林和灌木丛。在中低和高情景下，分别有 51.6%和 73.8%的荒野地区，其核心自然植被区域预计会减少。周围存在公共土地并没有减轻荒野地区土地利用变化的影响。从地理上看，预计变化发生在美国大陆各地，东北部和中西部上地区预计将经历最大的土地利用和气候变化，而西南部预计将经历最大的土地覆盖和气候变化。我们的研究结果为荒野地区未来面临的潜在威胁以及荒野管理和气候适应所面临的挑战提供了一些见解。尽管荒野地区受到高度保护和偏远，但对这些土地的有效管理和保护必须考虑未来的土地利用、土地覆盖和气候变化。
