Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, North Ryde, NSW, Australia.
PLoS One. 2012;7(8):e43714. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0043714. Epub 2012 Aug 30.
The conservation efficiency of Protected Areas (PA) is influenced by the health and characteristics of the surrounding landscape matrix. Fragmentation of adjacent lands interrupts ecological flows within PAs and will decrease the ability of species to shift their distribution as climate changes. For five periods across the 21(st) century, we assessed changes to the extent of primary land, secondary land, pasture and crop land projected to occur within 50 km buffers surrounding IUCN-designated PAs. Four scenarios of land-use were obtained from the Land-Use Harmonization Project, developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The scenarios project the continued decline of primary lands within buffers surrounding PAs. Substantial losses are projected to occur across buffer regions in the tropical forest biomes of Indo-Malayan and the Temperate Broadleaf forests of the Nearctic. A number of buffer regions are projected to have negligible primary land remaining by 2100, including those in the Afrotropic's Tropical/Subtropical Grassland/Savanna/Shrubland. From 2010-2050, secondary land is projected to increase within most buffer regions, although, as with pasture and crops within tropical and temperate forests, projections from the four land-use scenarios may diverge substantially in magnitude and direction of change. These scenarios demonstrate a range of alternate futures, and show that although effective mitigation strategies may reduce pressure on land surrounding PAs, these areas will contain an increasingly heterogeneous matrix of primary and human-modified landscapes. Successful management of buffer regions will be imperative to ensure effectiveness of PAs and to facilitate climate-induced shifts in species ranges.
保护区（PA）的保护效率受到周围景观基质的健康和特征的影响。相邻土地的破碎化会中断 PA 内的生态流动，并降低物种随着气候变化而改变分布的能力。我们评估了在 21 世纪的五个时期内，预计在 IUCN 指定的 PA 周围 50 公里缓冲区范围内发生的主要土地、次生土地、牧场和农田的范围变化。四个土地利用情景是从土地利用协调项目中获得的，该项目是为政府间气候变化专门委员会的第五次评估报告（AR5）开发的。这些情景预测了 PA 周围缓冲区中主要土地的持续减少。预计在印度-马来热带森林生物群系和北温带阔叶森林的缓冲区地区将发生大量损失。到 2100 年，许多缓冲区预计将几乎没有主要土地保留，包括非洲热带的热带/亚热带草原/稀树草原/灌木丛。从 2010 年到 2050 年，预计大多数缓冲区的次生土地将增加，尽管如此，与热带和温带森林中的牧场和作物一样，四个土地利用情景的预测在数量和变化方向上可能会有很大的分歧。这些情景展示了一系列替代的未来，并表明，尽管有效的缓解策略可能会减少对 PA 周围土地的压力，但这些地区将包含越来越多的主要和人为修改景观的异质基质。缓冲区的成功管理对于确保 PA 的有效性和促进物种范围因气候变化而发生的变化至关重要。
