Ye Pengcheng, Zhang Guangfu, Zhao Xiao, Chen Hui, Si Qin, Wu Jianyong
Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences Ministry of Ecology and Environment of the People's Republic of China Nanjing China.
Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Biodiversity and Biotechnology School of Life Sciences Nanjing Normal University Nanjing China.
Ecol Evol. 2021 Sep 4;11(19):13052-13067. doi: 10.1002/ece3.7999. eCollection 2021 Oct.
In recent decades, due to the effect of climate change and the interference of human activities, the species habitat index has fallen by 2%. Studying on the geographical distribution pattern and predicting the potential geographical distribution of species are of great significance for developing scientific and effective biodiversity conservation strategies. Plenty of rare and endangered species that need immediate conservation are distributed in Northwest Yunnan. In this regard, this research is conducted in the purpose of predicting the potential geographical distribution of 25 rare and endangered plant species in Northwest Yunnan and analyzing the explanation capabilities of various environmental factors on the potential geographical distribution patterns of these species. Initially, the ecological niche model MaxEnt was employed to predict the potential geographical distribution of target species. Following that, the superposition method was applied to obtain the potential geographical distribution pattern of species richness on the spatial scale of the ecological niche model with a resolution of 0.05° × 0.05°. Ultimately, geographically weighted regression (GWR) model was adopted to investigate the explanation capabilities of various environmental parameters on the potential distribution patterns. The research results showed that the average value of the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) of each species was between 0.80 and 1.00, which indicated that the simulation accuracy of the MaxEnt model for each species was good or excellent. On the whole, the potential distribution area for each species was relatively concentrated and mainly distributed in the central-western, central-eastern and northern regions of Northwest Yunnan. In addition, the potential distribution areas of these species were between 826.33 km and 44,963.53 km. In addition, the annual precipitation (Bio12), precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio19), and population density (Pop) made a greater contribution to the species distribution model, and their contribution values were 25.92%, 15.86%, and 17.95%, respectively. Moreover, the goodness-of-fit and AIC value of the water model were 0.88 and 7,703.82, respectively, which indicated the water factor largely influenced the potential distribution of these species. These results would contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the potential geographical distribution pattern and the distribution of suitable habitats of some rare and endangered plant species in Northwest Yunnan and would be helpful for implementing long-term conservation and reintroduction for these species.
近几十年来，由于气候变化的影响和人类活动的干扰，物种栖息地指数下降了2%。研究物种的地理分布格局并预测其潜在地理分布，对于制定科学有效的生物多样性保护策略具有重要意义。滇西北分布着大量急需保护的珍稀濒危物种。在此方面，本研究旨在预测滇西北25种珍稀濒危植物物种的潜在地理分布，并分析各种环境因素对这些物种潜在地理分布格局的解释能力。首先，利用生态位模型MaxEnt预测目标物种的潜在地理分布。随后，采用叠加法在分辨率为0.05°×0.05°的生态位模型空间尺度上获得物种丰富度的潜在地理分布格局。最终，采用地理加权回归（GWR）模型研究各种环境参数对潜在分布格局的解释能力。研究结果表明，各物种的受试者工作特征曲线下面积（AUC）平均值在0.80至1.00之间，这表明MaxEnt模型对各物种的模拟精度良好或优异。总体而言，各物种的潜在分布区域相对集中，主要分布在滇西北的中西部、中东部和北部地区。此外，这些物种的潜在分布面积在826.33平方千米至44963.53平方千米之间。此外，年降水量（Bio12）、最冷月降水量（Bio19）和人口密度（Pop）对物种分布模型的贡献较大，其贡献值分别为25.92%、15.86%和17.95%。此外，水分模型的拟合优度和AIC值分别为0.88和7703.82，这表明水分因素在很大程度上影响了这些物种的潜在分布。这些结果将有助于更全面地了解滇西北一些珍稀濒危植物物种的潜在地理分布格局和适宜栖息地分布，有助于对这些物种实施长期保护和重新引入。
