FAME Laboratory, Department of Physical Education and Sport Science, University of Thessaly, Trikala, GREECE.
University of Canberra, Research Institute for Sport and Exercise, Canberra, AUSTRALIA.
Med Sci Sports Exerc. 2022 Jan 1;54(1):153-161. doi: 10.1249/MSS.0000000000002769.
This study evaluated how single or combinations of weather parameters (temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar load) affect peak performance during endurance running events and identified which events are most vulnerable to varying weather conditions.
Results for the marathon, 50-km racewalking, 20-km racewalking, and 10,000-, 5000-, and 3000-m steeplechase were obtained from the official Web sites of large competitions. We identified meteorological data from nearby (8.9 ± 9.3 km) weather stations for 1258 races held between 1936 and 2019 across 42 countries, enabling analysis of 7867 athletes.
The wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) across races ranged from -7°C to 33°C, with 27% of races taking place in cold/cool, 47% in neutral, 18% in moderate heat, 7% in high heat, and 1% in extreme heat conditions, according to the World Athletics classification. Machine learning decision trees (R2 = 0.21-0.58) showed that air temperature (importance score = 40%) was the most important weather parameter. However, when used alone, air temperature had lower predictive power (R2 = 0.04-0.34) than WBGT (R2 = 0.11-0.47). Conditions of 7.5°C-15°C WBGT (or 10°C-17.5°C air temperature) increased the likelihood for peak performance. For every degree WBGT outside these optimum conditions, performance declined by 0.3%-0.4%.
More than one-quarter of endurance running events were held in moderate, high, or extreme heat, and this number reached one-half when marathons were excluded. All four weather parameters should be evaluated when aiming to mitigate the health and performance implications of exercising at high intensities in a hot environment with athletes adopting heat mitigation strategies when possible.
本研究评估了单一或多种天气参数（温度、湿度、风速和太阳负荷）如何影响耐力跑比赛中的最高表现，并确定了哪些比赛最容易受到不同天气条件的影响。
马拉松、50 公里竞走、20 公里竞走以及 10000 米、5000 米和 3000 米障碍赛的结果来自于大型比赛的官方网站。我们从 1936 年至 2019 年在 42 个国家举办的 1258 场比赛中，从附近（8.9 ± 9.3 公里）气象站获得了气象数据，分析了 7867 名运动员的数据。
根据世界田径联合会的分类，比赛期间的湿球黑球温度（WBGT）范围从-7°C到 33°C，其中 27%的比赛在寒冷/凉爽条件下进行，47%在中性条件下进行，18%在中度热条件下进行，7%在高热条件下进行，1%在极端热条件下进行。机器学习决策树（R2 = 0.21-0.58）表明，空气温度（重要性得分= 40%）是最重要的天气参数。然而，当单独使用时，空气温度的预测能力较低（R2 = 0.04-0.34），而 WBGT 的预测能力较高（R2 = 0.11-0.47）。7.5°C-15°C WBGT（或 10°C-17.5°C 空气温度）的条件增加了达到最高表现的可能性。每超过 WBGT 最佳条件一度，表现就会下降 0.3%-0.4%。
超过四分之一的耐力跑比赛在中度、高热或极端热条件下进行，当不包括马拉松比赛时，这个数字达到了一半。在高温环境下，运动员采用热缓解策略以高强度运动时，应评估所有四个天气参数，以减轻对健康和表现的影响。
