State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.
Key Laboratory for City Cluster Environmental Safety and Green Development of the Ministry of Education, Institute of Environmental and Ecological Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510006, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Feb 1;806(Pt 4):150970. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150970. Epub 2021 Oct 14.
Environmental changes in response to global warming would conversely deplete the efficacy of our actions combating climate change, cultivating extra cost. Among them, the declining snow cover due to global warming would diminish its contribution to climate regulation, and further exacerbate global warming. This leads to a part of global carbon mitigation efforts acting virtually to neutralize the impact of snow cover reduction. It would have been otherwise saved to contribute to the goals of the Paris Agreement. In this respect, here we evaluate the economic impacts of snow cover reduction in the Northern Hemisphere in terms of the mitigation that virtually counteracts the loss of climate regulation pertinent to the snow cover reduction trend, to demonstrate the magnitude of the cascading costs of climate change. As different carbon mitigation approaches would lead to different economic impacts, we follow the general principles of the Paris Agreement and establish two responsibility-sharing scenarios. The results reveal the non-negligible global costs considering not only the impact incurred by the nations implementing carbon mitigation but also, in the context of globalization, the cascading effect magnified in the global supply chain. We also identify critical nations, sectors, and international trade pairs that would confront the most costs. The results urge hotspot nations and trade partners to actively participate in the enhanced global efforts through the Paris Agreement to reduce carbon emissions. This can not only mitigate its direct global warming effect, but also abate the impacts of collateral environmental deterioration, such as snow cover reduction, eventually for their own benefits.
环境变化会因全球变暖而发生,从而降低我们应对气候变化的行动效果,增加额外成本。其中,由于全球变暖导致的积雪减少,将减弱其对气候调节的贡献,进一步加剧全球变暖。这导致部分全球碳减排努力实际上抵消了积雪减少的影响。否则,这些努力本可以为巴黎协定的目标做出贡献。在这方面,我们根据与积雪减少趋势相关的气候调节损失的实际缓解情况,评估了北半球积雪减少的经济影响,以展示气候变化的级联成本的规模。由于不同的碳减排方法会产生不同的经济影响,我们遵循巴黎协定的一般原则,建立了两种责任分担情景。结果表明,考虑到不仅是实施碳减排的国家所承担的影响,而且在全球化背景下,全球供应链中放大的级联效应,全球成本是不可忽视的。我们还确定了面临最大成本的关键国家、部门和国际贸易对。结果敦促热点国家和贸易伙伴通过巴黎协定积极参与加强全球减排努力。这不仅可以减轻其直接的全球变暖效应,还可以减轻因碳减排带来的环境恶化的影响,如积雪减少,最终为自身利益着想。