Symum Hasan, Zayas-Castro José
Industrial and Management Systems Engineering, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL 33620, USA.
Healthcare (Basel). 2021 Oct 7;9(10):1334. doi: 10.3390/healthcare9101334.
The timing of 30-day pediatric readmissions is skewed with approximately 40% of the incidents occurring within the first week of hospital discharges. The skewed readmission time distribution coupled with delay in health information exchange among healthcare providers might offer a limited time to devise a comprehensive intervention plan. However, pediatric readmission studies are thus far limited to the development of the prediction model after hospital discharges. In this study, we proposed a novel pediatric readmission prediction model at the time of hospital admission which can improve the high-risk patient selection process. We also compared proposed models with the standard at-discharge readmission prediction model. Using the Hospital Cost and Utilization Project database, this prognostic study included pediatric hospital discharges in Florida from January 2016 through September 2017. Four machine learning algorithms-logistic regression with backward stepwise selection, decision tree, Support Vector machines (SVM) with the polynomial kernel, and Gradient Boosting-were developed for at-admission and at-discharge models using a recursive feature elimination technique with a repeated cross-validation process. The performance of the at-admission and at-discharge model was measured by the area under the curve. The performance of the at-admission model was comparable with the at-discharge model for all four algorithms. SVM with Polynomial Kernel algorithms outperformed all other algorithms for at-admission and at-discharge models. Important features associated with increased readmission risk varied widely across the type of prediction model and were mostly related to patients' demographics, social determinates, clinical factors, and hospital characteristics. Proposed at-admission readmission risk decision support model could help hospitals and providers with additional time for intervention planning, particularly for those targeting social determinants of children's overall health.
30天小儿再入院的时间分布存在偏差,约40%的事件发生在出院后的第一周内。再入院时间分布的偏差,加上医疗服务提供者之间健康信息交换的延迟,可能会限制制定全面干预计划的时间。然而,迄今为止,小儿再入院研究仅限于出院后预测模型的开发。在本研究中,我们提出了一种在入院时的新型小儿再入院预测模型,该模型可以改进高危患者的选择过程。我们还将提出的模型与标准的出院时再入院预测模型进行了比较。利用医院成本和利用项目数据库,这项预后研究纳入了2016年1月至2017年9月佛罗里达州的小儿出院病例。使用递归特征消除技术和重复交叉验证过程,为入院时和出院时的模型开发了四种机器学习算法——带向后逐步选择的逻辑回归、决策树、具有多项式核的支持向量机(SVM)和梯度提升。通过曲线下面积来衡量入院时和出院时模型的性能。对于所有四种算法,入院时模型的性能与出院时模型相当。具有多项式核算法的支持向量机在入院时和出院时模型中优于所有其他算法。与再入院风险增加相关的重要特征在预测模型类型之间差异很大,并且大多与患者的人口统计学、社会决定因素、临床因素和医院特征有关。提出的入院时再入院风险决策支持模型可以帮助医院和医疗服务提供者有更多时间进行干预规划,特别是对于那些针对儿童整体健康社会决定因素的规划。