Basher Syed Abul, Haque A K Enamul
Department of Economics, East West University, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
J Soc Econ Dev. 2021;23(Suppl 2):234-247. doi: 10.1007/s40847-020-00118-w. Epub 2020 Nov 5.
Using cumulative confirmed cases of Covid-19 covering 163 countries, this paper tests several hypotheses that have received extensive attention in the popular media and academic research during the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Our goal is to identify lessons for designing better public health policies in the post-pandemic era based on the past 6 months' experiences of these 163 countries. Based on 2SLS regression, we derive the following lessons. First, providing universal health care is a significant public health strategy for countries to help deal with similar outbreaks in the future. Second, tackling air pollution is a win-win solution, not only for better preparedness against Covid-19 or other airborne diseases, but also for the environment and climate change. Third, lockdowns may help to reduce community spread, but its impact on reducing Covid-19 incidence is not statistically significant. Similarly, antimalarial drugs have no significant effect on reducing the spread of the disease. Fourth, countries should encourage home-based work as much as possible until some treatment or cure is found for the virus. Fifth, the lessons of past SARS experience helped contain the spread of the infection in East Asian countries; other countries must adjust their social and cultural life to the new normal: wearing masks, washing hands, and keeping a distance from others in public places.
本文利用涵盖163个国家的新冠疫情累计确诊病例，检验了在当前新冠疫情期间受到大众媒体和学术研究广泛关注的几个假设。我们的目标是根据这163个国家过去6个月的经验，为后疫情时代设计更好的公共卫生政策汲取经验教训。基于两阶段最小二乘法回归，我们得出以下经验教训。第一，提供全民医疗保健是各国帮助应对未来类似疫情爆发的一项重要公共卫生战略。第二，治理空气污染是一种双赢解决方案，不仅有助于更好地防范新冠疫情或其他空气传播疾病，还对环境和气候变化有益。第三，封锁措施可能有助于减少社区传播，但其对降低新冠发病率的影响在统计学上并不显著。同样，抗疟药物对减少疾病传播也没有显著效果。第四，在找到针对该病毒的某种治疗方法之前，各国应尽可能鼓励居家工作。第五，过去非典疫情的经验教训有助于控制东亚国家的感染传播；其他国家必须将其社会和文化生活调整到新常态：戴口罩、洗手以及在公共场所与他人保持距离。
