Wells Chad R, Pandey Abhishek, Fitzpatrick Meagan C, Crystal William S, Singer Burton H, Moghadas Seyed M, Galvani Alison P, Townsend Jeffrey P
Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis (CIDMA), Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut 06520, USA.
Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, 21201, USA.
medRxiv. 2021 Dec 17:2021.04.25.21256082. doi: 10.1101/2021.04.25.21256082.
Numerous countries imposed strict travel restrictions, contributing to the large socioeconomic burden during the COVID-19 pandemic. The long quarantines that apply to contacts of cases may be excessive for travel policy.
We developed an approach to evaluate imminent countrywide COVID-19 infections after 0-14-day quarantine and testing. We identified the minimum travel quarantine duration such that the infection rate within the destination country did not increase compared to a travel ban, defining this minimum quarantine as "sufficient."
We present a generalised analytical framework and a specific case study of the epidemic situation on November 21, 2021, for application to 26 European countries. For most origin-destination country pairs, a three-day or shorter quarantine with RT-PCR or antigen testing on exit suffices. Adaptation to the European Union traffic-light risk stratification provided a simplified policy tool. Our analytical approach provides guidance for travel policy during all phases of pandemic diseases.
For nearly half of origin-destination country pairs analysed, travel can be permitted in the absence of quarantine and testing. For the majority of pairs requiring controls, a short quarantine with testing could be as effective as a complete travel ban. The estimated travel quarantine durations are substantially shorter than those specified for traced contacts.
EasyJet (JPT and APG), the Elihu endowment (JPT), the Burnett and Stender families' endowment (APG), the Notsew Orm Sands Foundation (JPT and APG), the National Institutes of Health (MCF), Canadian Institutes of Health Research (SMM) and Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada EIDM-MfPH (SMM).
许多国家实施了严格的旅行限制，这在新冠疫情期间造成了巨大的社会经济负担。对病例接触者实施的长时间隔离对于旅行政策而言可能过于严格。
我们开发了一种方法，用于评估在进行0至14天隔离和检测后即将出现的全国范围内的新冠病毒感染情况。我们确定了最短旅行隔离时长，以使目的地国家的感染率与旅行禁令相比不会增加，并将这一最短隔离时长定义为“足够”。
我们提出了一个通用分析框架以及针对2021年11月21日疫情形势的具体案例研究，以应用于26个欧洲国家。对于大多数出发地与目的地国家组合而言，出发时进行逆转录聚合酶链反应（RT-PCR）或抗原检测并进行为期三天或更短时间的隔离就足够了。采用欧盟交通信号灯风险分层法提供了一种简化的政策工具。我们的分析方法为大流行疾病各阶段的旅行政策提供了指导。
对于近一半分析的出发地与目的地国家组合，无需隔离和检测即可允许旅行。对于大多数需要管控的组合，进行短期检测隔离与全面旅行禁令的效果相当。估计的旅行隔离时长大大短于针对追踪到的接触者规定的时长。
易捷航空（JPT和APG）、伊莱休捐赠基金（JPT）、伯内特和斯滕德家族捐赠基金（APG）、诺特索姆沙滩基金会（JPT和APG）、美国国立卫生研究院（MCF）、加拿大卫生研究院（SMM）以及加拿大自然科学与工程研究理事会EIDM-MfPH（SMM）。
