Division of Health Policy and Administration (MC 923), School of Public Health, University of Illinois Chicago, Rm. 777, 1603 W Taylor St., Chicago, IL, 60612-4393, USA.
Institute for Health Research and Policy, University of Illinois Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA.
J Public Health Policy. 2021 Dec;42(4):574-588. doi: 10.1057/s41271-021-00308-8. Epub 2021 Nov 3.
This study examines longer-run impacts of the Seattle, Washington, Sweetened Beverage Tax (SBT) on beverage prices, volume sold, and cross-border shopping. We use a difference-in-differences estimation approach, drawing on universal product code-level store scanner data on taxed and untaxed beverages one-year pre-tax and two-year post-tax with Portland, Oregon, as the comparison site. Two-year post-tax, prices of taxed beverages increased by 1.04 cents per ounce (59% tax pass-through rate). Volume sold of taxed beverages fell by 22%. Declines were larger for family-size (29%) compared to individual-size (10%) beverages; particularly for soda (36% decrease for family-size compared to no change for individual-size). We found no change in volume sold of taxed beverages in Seattle's 2-mile border area, suggesting no cross-border shopping. Overall, we found a sustained impact of the Seattle SBT two-year post-tax implementation suggesting that sugar-sweetened beverage taxes may yield permanent reductions in demand for sugary beverages and associated health harms.
本研究考察了华盛顿州西雅图市甜饮料税（SBT）对饮料价格、销售量和跨境购物的更长期影响。我们采用了双重差分估计方法，利用两年内征税和未征税饮料的通用产品代码级商店扫描数据，以俄勒冈州波特兰市为对照地点。在征税两年后，征税饮料的价格每盎司上涨了 1.04 美分（59%的税收转嫁率）。征税饮料的销售量下降了 22%。家庭装（29%）的降幅大于个人装（10%）；特别是苏打水（家庭装下降 36%，个人装不变）。我们没有发现西雅图 2 英里边境地区征税饮料销售量的变化，这表明没有跨境购物。总的来说，我们发现西雅图 SBT 实施两年后仍有持续影响，这表明含糖饮料税可能会导致对含糖饮料的需求永久减少，从而减少相关的健康危害。
