Division of Health Policy and Administration, School of Public Health, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States.
Institute for Health Research and Policy, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States.
Econ Hum Biol. 2020 May;37:100855. doi: 10.1016/j.ehb.2020.100855. Epub 2020 Jan 21.
This study assessed the extent to which the Cook County, IL, Sweetened Beverage Tax (SBT) of one cent per ounce (oz) on sugar-sweetened and artificially sweetened beverages was passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. We drew on universal product code-level store scanner data and used a pre-post intervention-comparison site difference-in-differences (DID) study design to estimate the impact of the Cook County SBT on prices of taxed beverages, across product categories and sizes, as well as on prices of untaxed beverages. The DID model results showed an over-shifting of the tax with a 119% pass-through rate, on average, across all taxed beverages in Cook County compared to its comparison site. This price change represented, on average, a 34% increase in prices of taxed beverages. For untaxed beverages, prices were estimated to increase slightly by 0.04 cents per oz driven mainly by an increase in milk prices (0.12 cents per oz). We also found some heterogeneity in tax pass-through for the taxed beverages by sweetened beverage product category and size with pass-through being higher, on average, for individual-size (126%) compared to family-size (117%) beverages and higher for energy drinks (145%) compared to other sweetened beverages. Based on the baseline prices of different categories and sizes of beverages, the effective percentage increase in beverage prices resulting from the Cook County SBT ranged from a 52% increase for family-size soda to a 10% increase for family-size energy drinks.
这项研究评估了伊利诺伊州库克县每盎司（盎司）含糖和人工加糖饮料征收一美分的含糖饮料税（SBT）有多少以更高价格的形式转嫁给了消费者。我们利用通用产品代码级别的商店扫描器数据，并使用前后干预比较地点差异（DID）研究设计来估计库克县 SBT 对各种产品类别和大小的应税饮料价格的影响，以及对未征税饮料价格的影响。DID 模型结果表明，与比较地点相比，在库克县所有应税饮料中，平均有 119%的税收转嫁给了消费者，这是一种过度的税收转移。这种价格变化平均代表应税饮料价格上涨了 34%。对于未征税饮料，价格预计会略有上涨，平均每盎司上涨 0.04 美分，主要是由于牛奶价格上涨（每盎司上涨 0.12 美分）。我们还发现，应税饮料的税收转移动态存在一定的异质性，按甜味饮料产品类别和大小划分，平均而言，个人装（126%）的税收转移动态高于家庭装（117%），能量饮料（145%）高于其他甜味饮料。基于不同类别和大小饮料的基准价格，库克县 SBT 导致的饮料价格有效百分比涨幅从家庭装苏打水的 52%上涨到家庭装能量饮料的 10%。
