Gutierrez Emilio, Rubli Adrian, Tavares Tiago
Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM), Department of Economics, Camino a Santa Teresa 930. Colonia Heroes de Padierna, Magdalena Contreras CDMX 10700, Mexico.
ITAM, Department of Business Administration, Mexico.
J Dev Econ. 2022 Jan;154:102774. doi: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102774. Epub 2021 Oct 30.
Providing information is important for managing epidemics, but issues with data accuracy may hinder its effectiveness. Focusing on Covid-19 in Mexico, we ask whether delays in death reports affect individuals' beliefs and behavior. Exploiting administrative data and an online survey, we provide evidence that behavior, and consequently the evolution of the pandemic, are considerably different when death counts are presented by date reported rather than by date occurred, due to non-negligible reporting delays. We then use an equilibrium model incorporating an endogenous behavioral response to illustrate how reporting delays lead to slower individual responses, and consequently, worse epidemic outcomes.
提供信息对于管理疫情很重要，但数据准确性问题可能会阻碍其有效性。以墨西哥的新冠疫情为例，我们探讨死亡报告延迟是否会影响个人信念和行为。利用行政数据和一项在线调查，我们发现，由于不可忽视的报告延迟，按报告日期而非死亡日期呈现死亡人数时，行为以及疫情的演变会有很大不同。然后，我们使用一个纳入内生行为反应的均衡模型来说明报告延迟如何导致个人反应变慢，进而导致更糟糕的疫情结果。
