Estimating and simulating a SIRD Model of COVID-19 for many countries, states, and cities.

We use data on deaths in New York City, Madrid, Stockholm, and other world cities as well as in various U.S. states and other regions and countries to estimate, quickly and with limited data, a standard epidemiological model of COVID-19. We allow for a time-varying contact rate in order to capture behavioral and policy-induced changes associated with social distancing. We simulate the model forward to consider possible scenarios for various countries, states, and cities, including the potential impact of herd immunity on re-opening.