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[中国石家庄新型冠状病毒肺炎的流行病学特征]

[Epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus pneumonia in Shijiazhuang, China].

作者信息

Sun J W, Cui Z F, Li F J, Liu M Y, Gong X W, Tian F J, Shi J Y, Yuan Y D, Zhou J K

机构信息

Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, the Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University, Shijiazhuang 050004, China.

Department of Radiology, Hebei Armed Police Corps Hospital, Shijiazhuang 050080, China.

出版信息

Zhonghua Jie He He Hu Xi Za Zhi. 2021 Nov 12;44(11):961-965. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112147-20210330-00212.

Abstract

To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of an outbreak of novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province in 2021 and to provide scientific basis for developing improved strategies to prevent and control the outbreak of COVID-19. Descriptive analysis of the outbreak of COVID-19 in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province was performed with SPSS 21.0 and Excel software. The statistical analysis of the incubation period was performed using the rstan package in R4.0.4. As of February 14 2021, a total of 942 local confirmed cases were reported in Hebei Province, 869 cases in Shijiazhuang, of which 847 cases were available for case information. This outbreak was mainly in rural areas, with the largest number of confirmed cases in Xiaoguozhuang village, 249 (29.4%); followed by Nanqiaozhai village, 128 (15.1%); and Liujiazuo village, 85 (10.0%). The outbreak lasted from January 2, 2021 to February 14, 2021, and was mainly transmitted among the farmers as well as the students through dining parties, public gatherings and family contacts, showing an obvious time and occupation concentration trend. An analysis of 116 local confirmed cases in this outbreak with specific exposure time and onset time indicated that the median incubation period was 6 [interquartile range(IQR): 3.3, 10.0] days; whereas another report including 264 local confirmed cases with specific exposure time window showed that a median incubation period was 8.5 [95% confidence interval (): 1.8-18.8] days. This outbreak was mainly related to rural areas, and was associated with parties, public gatherings and family gatherings. Self-protection and isolation of key areas and populations at risk should be effectively implemented to avoid close contact and other measures to reduce the occurrence of COVID-19 aggregation. Based on the results of the incubation period of this outbreak, the isolation period could be recommended to be extended to three weeks.

摘要

分析2021年河北省石家庄市新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情的流行病学特征,为制定完善的COVID-19疫情防控策略提供科学依据。运用SPSS 21.0和Excel软件对河北省石家庄市COVID-19疫情进行描述性分析。使用R4.0.4中的rstan包对潜伏期进行统计分析。截至2021年2月14日,河北省共报告本地确诊病例942例,其中石家庄市869例,847例有病例信息。本次疫情主要发生在农村地区,小果庄村确诊病例最多,为249例(29.4%);其次是南桥寨村,128例(15.1%);刘家佐村85例(10.0%)。疫情从2021年1月2日持续至2021年2月14日,主要通过聚餐、公众集会和家庭接触在农民和学生中传播,呈现明显的时间和职业聚集趋势。对本次疫情中116例有明确暴露时间和发病时间的本地确诊病例分析显示,潜伏期中位数为6天[四分位数间距(IQR):3.3,10.0];而另一项纳入264例有明确暴露时间窗的本地确诊病例的报告显示,潜伏期中位数为8.5天[95%置信区间():1.8 - 18.8]天。本次疫情主要与农村地区相关,与聚餐、公众集会和家庭聚会有关。应有效落实重点地区和高危人群的自我防护和隔离措施,避免密切接触等,以减少COVID-19聚集性疫情的发生。基于本次疫情潜伏期结果,建议隔离期延长至三周。

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