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利用人工智能分析对韩国的新冠疫情进行预测。

COVID-19 prediction using AI analytics for South Korea.

作者信息

Sinha Adwitiya, Rathi Megha

机构信息

Department of Computer Science & Engineering and Information Technology, Jaypee Institute of Information Technology, Noida, Sector-62, Noida, Uttar Pradesh India.

出版信息

Appl Intell (Dordr). 2021;51(12):8579-8597. doi: 10.1007/s10489-021-02352-z. Epub 2021 Apr 8.

Abstract

The severe spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has created a situation of public health emergency and global awareness. In our research, we analyzed the demographical factors affecting the global pandemic spread along with the features that lead to death due to the infection. Modeling results stipulate that the mortality rate increase as the age increase and it is found that most of the death cases belong to the age group 60-80. Cluster-based analysis of age groups is also conducted to analyze the maximum targeted age-groups. An association between positive COVID-19 cases and deceased cases are also presented, with the impact on male and female death cases due to corona. Additionally, we have also presented an artificial intelligence-based statistical approach to predict the survival chances of corona infected people in South Korea with the analysis of the impact on the exploratory factors, including age-groups, gender, temporal evolution, etc. To analyze the coronavirus cases, we applied machine learning with hyperparameters tuning and deep learning models with an autoencoder-based approach for estimating the influence of the disparate features on the spread of the disease and predict the survival possibilities of the quarantined patients in isolation. The model calibrated in the study is based on positive corona infection cases and presents the analysis over different aspects that proven to be impactful to analyze the temporal trends in the current situation along with the exploration of deceased cases due to coronavirus. Analysis delineates key points in the outbreak spreading, indicating that the models driven by machine intelligence and deep learning can be effective in providing a quantitative view of the epidemical outbreak.

摘要

新冠疫情的严重蔓延造成了公共卫生紧急状况并引起了全球关注。在我们的研究中,我们分析了影响全球疫情传播的人口统计学因素以及感染导致死亡的特征。建模结果表明,死亡率随着年龄的增长而上升,并且发现大多数死亡病例属于60 - 80岁年龄组。还对年龄组进行了基于聚类的分析,以确定最大的目标年龄组。此外,还展示了新冠确诊病例与死亡病例之间的关联,以及新冠对男性和女性死亡病例的影响。另外,我们还提出了一种基于人工智能的统计方法,通过分析包括年龄组、性别、时间演变等探索性因素的影响,来预测韩国新冠感染者的存活几率。为了分析新冠病例,我们应用了带有超参数调整的机器学习和基于自动编码器的深度学习模型,以估计不同特征对疾病传播的影响,并预测隔离中被隔离患者的存活可能性。本研究中校准的模型基于新冠阳性感染病例,并对不同方面进行了分析,这些方面被证明对分析当前形势下的时间趋势以及探索新冠死亡病例具有重要意义。分析描绘了疫情爆发传播中的关键点,表明由机器智能和深度学习驱动的模型能够有效地提供疫情爆发的定量视图。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7089/8027716/c87269af9c26/10489_2021_2352_Fig2_HTML.jpg

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