美国及全球新冠疫情期间感染传播的混沌行为
The Chaotic Behavior of the Spread of Infection During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States and Globally.
作者信息
Sapkota Nabin, Karwowski Waldemar, Davahli Mohammad Reza, Al-Juaid Awad, Taiar Redha, Murata Atsuo, Wrobel Grzegorz, Marek Tadeusz
机构信息
Department of Engineering TechnologyNorthwestern State University of Louisiana Natchitoches LA 71459 USA.
Department of Industrial Engineering and Management SystemsUniversity of Central Florida Orlando FL 32816 USA.
出版信息
IEEE Access. 2021 Jun 2;9:80692-80702. doi: 10.1109/ACCESS.2021.3085240. eCollection 2021.
In December 2019, China announced the breakout of a new virus identified as coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), which soon grew exponentially and resulted in a global pandemic. Despite strict actions to mitigate the spread of the virus in various countries, COVID-19 resulted in a significant loss of human life in 2020 and early 2021. To better understand the dynamics of the spread of COVID-19, evidence of its chaotic behavior in the US and globally was evaluated. A 0-1 test was used to analyze the time-series data of confirmed daily COVID-19 cases from 1/22/2020 to 12/13/2020. The results show that the behavior of the COVID-19 pandemic was chaotic in 55% of the investigated countries. Although the time-series data for the entire US was not chaotic, 39% of individual states displayed chaotic infection spread behavior based on the reported daily cases. Overall, there is evidence of chaotic behavior of the spread of COVID-19 infection worldwide, which adds to the difficulty in controlling and preventing the current pandemic.
2019年12月，中国宣布发现一种新型病毒，即冠状病毒SARS-CoV-2（新冠病毒），该病毒迅速呈指数级传播，导致全球大流行。尽管各国采取了严格措施来减缓病毒传播，但新冠病毒在2020年和2021年初仍造成了重大人员伤亡。为了更好地了解新冠病毒的传播动态，对其在美国和全球的混沌行为证据进行了评估。采用0-1检验分析了2020年1月22日至2020年12月13日期间每日新冠确诊病例的时间序列数据。结果表明，在55%的被调查国家中，新冠疫情的行为是混沌的。尽管美国整体的时间序列数据并非混沌，但根据每日报告病例，39%的州呈现出混沌的感染传播行为。总体而言，有证据表明新冠病毒感染在全球范围内的传播具有混沌行为，这增加了控制和预防当前大流行的难度。
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