Kaygusuz Hakan, Berker A Nihat
Department of Basic Sciences, Faculty of Engineering and Natural Sciences, Altınbaş University, İstanbul Turkey.
Sabancı University SUNUM Nanotechnology Research Center, İstanbul Turkey.
Turk J Biol. 2021 Aug 30;45(4):436-441. doi: 10.3906/biy-2105-69. eCollection 2021.
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is being responded with various methods, applying vaccines, experimental treatment options, total lockdowns or partial curfews. Weekend curfews are among the methods for reducing the number of infected persons, and this method is practically applied in some countries such as Turkey. In this study, the effect of weekend curfews on reducing the spread of a contagious disease, such as COVID-19, is modeled using a Monte Carlo algorithm with a hybrid lattice model. In the simulation setup, a fictional country with three towns and 26,610 citizens were used as a model. Results indicate that applying a weekend curfew reduces the ratio of ill cases from 0.23 to 0.15. The results also show that applying personal precautions such as social distancing is important for reducing the number of cases and deaths. If the probability of disease spread can be reduced to 0.1, in that case, the death ratio can be minimized down to 0.
正在以各种方法应对持续的新冠疫情，包括接种疫苗、采用实验性治疗方案、全面封锁或部分宵禁。周末宵禁是减少感染者数量的方法之一，这种方法在土耳其等一些国家实际应用。在本研究中，使用具有混合晶格模型的蒙特卡罗算法对周末宵禁在减少诸如新冠病毒这类传染病传播方面的效果进行建模。在模拟设置中，以一个有三个城镇和26610名居民的虚构国家作为模型。结果表明，实施周末宵禁可将患病比例从0.23降至0.15。结果还表明，采取诸如保持社交距离等个人预防措施对于减少病例数和死亡人数很重要。如果疾病传播概率能够降至0.1，那么在这种情况下，死亡率可降至最低为0。
