Wong Carlos K H, Wong Janet Y H, Tang Eric H M, Au Chi Ho, Lau Kristy T K, Wai Abraham K C
Department of Family Medicine and Primary Care, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China (Hong Kong).
School of Nursing, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China (Hong Kong).
J Med Internet Res. 2020 Jul 22;22(7):e19904. doi: 10.2196/19904.
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a worldwide epidemic, and various countries have responded with different containment measures to reduce disease transmission, including stay-at-home orders, curfews, and lockdowns. Comparative studies have not yet been conducted to investigate the impact of these containment measures; these studies are needed to facilitate public health policy-making across countries.
The aim of this study was to describe and evaluate the impact of national containment measures and policies (stay-at-home orders, curfews, and lockdowns) on decelerating the increase in daily new cases of COVID-19 in 54 countries and 4 epicenters of the pandemic in different jurisdictions worldwide.
We reviewed the effective dates of the national containment measures (stay-at-home order, curfew, or lockdown) of 54 countries and 4 epicenters of the COVID-19 pandemic (Wuhan, New York State, Lombardy, and Madrid), and we searched cumulative numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases and daily new cases provided by health authorities. Data were drawn from an open, crowdsourced, daily-updated COVID-19 data set provided by Our World in Data. We examined the trends in the percent increase in daily new cases from 7 days before to 30 days after the dates on which containment measures went into effect by continent, World Bank income classification, type of containment measures, effective date of containment measures, and number of confirmed cases on the effective date of the containment measures.
We included 122,366 patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection from 54 countries and 24,071 patients from 4 epicenters on the effective dates on which stay-at-home orders, curfews, or lockdowns were implemented between January 23 and April 11, 2020. Stay-at-home, curfew, and lockdown measures commonly commenced in countries with approximately 30%, 20%, or 10% increases in daily new cases. All three measures were found to lower the percent increase in daily new cases to <5 within one month. Among the countries studied, 20% had an average percent increase in daily new cases of 30-49 over the seven days prior to the commencement of containment measures; the percent increase in daily new cases in these countries was curbed to 10 and 5 a maximum of 15 days and 23 days after the implementation of containment measures, respectively.
Different national containment measures were associated with a decrease in daily new cases of confirmed COVID-19 infection. Stay-at-home orders, curfews, and lockdowns curbed the percent increase in daily new cases to <5 within a month. Resurgence in cases within one month was observed in some South American countries.
冠状病毒病（COVID-19）是一场全球大流行疾病，各国采取了不同的防控措施以减少疾病传播，包括居家令、宵禁和封锁。尚未开展比较研究来调查这些防控措施的影响；需要进行此类研究以促进各国的公共卫生政策制定。
本研究的目的是描述和评估国家防控措施及政策（居家令、宵禁和封锁）对全球54个国家以及疫情4个中心不同辖区内COVID-19每日新增病例数增长放缓的影响。
我们回顾了54个国家以及COVID-19疫情4个中心（武汉、纽约州、伦巴第和马德里）的国家防控措施（居家令、宵禁或封锁）的生效日期，并检索了卫生当局提供的COVID-19确诊病例累计数和每日新增病例数。数据取自“Our World in Data”提供的一个开放的、众包的、每日更新的COVID-19数据集。我们按大洲、世界银行收入分类、防控措施类型、防控措施生效日期以及防控措施生效日期的确诊病例数，研究了从防控措施生效日期前7天到生效日期后30天每日新增病例数增长百分比的趋势。
我们纳入了2020年1月23日至4月11日期间实施居家令、宵禁或封锁生效日期时来自54个国家的122,366例确诊COVID-19感染患者以及来自4个疫情中心的24,071例患者。居家、宵禁和封锁措施通常在每日新增病例数增加约30%、20%或10%的国家开始实施。发现所有这三种措施都能在一个月内将每日新增病例数的增长百分比降至<5%。在研究的国家中，20%的国家在防控措施开始实施前7天的每日新增病例数平均增长百分比为30% - 49%；这些国家的每日新增病例数增长百分比在实施防控措施后最多分别在15天和23天被控制到10%和5%。
不同的国家防控措施与确诊COVID-19感染的每日新增病例数减少相关。居家令、宵禁和封锁在一个月内将每日新增病例数的增长百分比控制到<5%。在一些南美国家观察到一个月内病例出现反弹。
