British American Tobacco, R&D, Southampton, United Kingdom.
Ventana Systems UK Ltd., Salisbury, United Kingdom.
Front Public Health. 2021 Nov 16;9:700473. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.700473. eCollection 2021.
With the proliferation of tobacco products, there might be a need for more complex models than current two-product models. We have developed a three-product model able to represent interactions between three products in the marketplace. We also investigate if using several implementations of two-product models could provide sufficient information to assess 3 coexisting products. Italy is used as case-study with THPs and e-cigarettes as the products under investigation. We use transitions rates estimated for THPs in Japan and e-cigarettes in the USA to project what could happen if the Italian population were to behave as the Japanese for THP or USA for e-cigarettes. Results suggest that three-product models may be hindered by data availability while two product models could miss potential synergies between products. Both, THP and E-Cigarette scenarios, led to reduction in life-years lost although the Japanese THP scenario reductions were 3 times larger than the USA e-cigarette projections.
随着烟草产品的扩散，可能需要比当前的两种产品模型更复杂的模型。我们开发了一种三产品模型，能够代表市场上三种产品之间的相互作用。我们还研究了使用两种产品模型的多个实现是否可以提供足够的信息来评估 3 种共存产品。意大利被用作案例研究，以加热不燃烧产品和电子烟作为研究对象。我们使用在日本为加热不燃烧产品和在美国为电子烟估计的转移率来预测，如果意大利人口的行为像日本人对加热不燃烧产品或美国人对电子烟那样，会发生什么情况。结果表明，三产品模型可能受到数据可用性的限制，而两产品模型可能会忽略产品之间的潜在协同作用。加热不燃烧产品和电子烟两种情况都导致了生命年损失的减少，尽管日本加热不燃烧产品的减少幅度是美国电子烟预测的 3 倍。
